Comments on: TNH FTW! A final post and a question for you. http://boingboing.net/2008/12/14/tnh-ftw-a-final-post.html Brain candy for Happy Mutants Wed, 19 Jun 2013 16:56:00 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.4.1 By: kip w http://boingboing.net/2008/12/14/tnh-ftw-a-final-post.html#comment-356353 kip w Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000 #comment-356353 A flying car and a jet pack will be introduced to the waiting world, after which they will suffer a terrible mid-air collision resulting in property damage and many fatalities. Both will be made illegal, except for use by government and the very rich. A flying car and a jet pack will be introduced to the waiting world, after which they will suffer a terrible mid-air collision resulting in property damage and many fatalities. Both will be made illegal, except for use by government and the very rich.

]]> By: kickabear http://boingboing.net/2008/12/14/tnh-ftw-a-final-post.html#comment-356609 kickabear Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000 #comment-356609 There will be food riots in urban areas by 2012. There will be food riots in urban areas by 2012.

]]> By: MarkHeck http://boingboing.net/2008/12/14/tnh-ftw-a-final-post.html#comment-356610 MarkHeck Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000 #comment-356610 I'm gonna be the first person in the world to be sent by television. I’m gonna be the first person in the world to be sent by television.

]]> By: decius http://boingboing.net/2008/12/14/tnh-ftw-a-final-post.html#comment-356356 decius Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000 #comment-356356 A smartphone worm will temporarily disable voice services on a cellphone network. You account information on some social networking sites will be verified against a government database, most likely the DMV. This practice might first be popularized in the UK. A smartphone worm will temporarily disable voice services on a cellphone network.

You account information on some social networking sites will be verified against a government database, most likely the DMV. This practice might first be popularized in the UK.

]]> By: Doc http://boingboing.net/2008/12/14/tnh-ftw-a-final-post.html#comment-356612 Doc Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000 #comment-356612 #76 *Someone following the model of the VW Bug in the 60s will produce a "Folks' Wagon"* We'll be in big trouble if the future follows the (political) model that gave rise to the Volkswagen! (But if they do, I hope they don't give it the name "Folks' Wagon"--or its original name, the "Strength-through-Joy Wagon.") #76 *Someone following the model of the VW Bug in the 60s will produce a “Folks’ Wagon”*

We’ll be in big trouble if the future follows the (political) model that gave rise to the Volkswagen!

(But if they do, I hope they don’t give it the name “Folks’ Wagon”–or its original name, the “Strength-through-Joy Wagon.”)

]]> By: bardfinn http://boingboing.net/2008/12/14/tnh-ftw-a-final-post.html#comment-356357 bardfinn Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000 #comment-356357 The only one I have left: Google's systems will host the Singularity. But I think most of us suspect that anyway. The only one I have left:

Google’s systems will host the Singularity.

But I think most of us suspect that anyway.

]]> By: Scixual http://boingboing.net/2008/12/14/tnh-ftw-a-final-post.html#comment-356358 Scixual Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000 #comment-356358 Male and female clothing will continue to overlap and even swap. Skirts and heels for men will become trendy. Driver's licenses will cease to exist. Male and female clothing will continue to overlap and even swap. Skirts and heels for men will become trendy.

Driver’s licenses will cease to exist.

]]> By: zeeba neighba http://boingboing.net/2008/12/14/tnh-ftw-a-final-post.html#comment-358919 zeeba neighba Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000 #comment-358919 Ragnarok Ragnarok

]]> By: fennel http://boingboing.net/2008/12/14/tnh-ftw-a-final-post.html#comment-356872 fennel Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000 #comment-356872 "This has all happened before, and it will all happen again." “This has all happened before,
and it will all happen again.”

]]> By: broussardish http://boingboing.net/2008/12/14/tnh-ftw-a-final-post.html#comment-356620 broussardish Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000 #comment-356620 Plumbers and electricians and other home repair services will become rarely used after initial construction, and become symbols of nostalgia, like milkmen or shoe repair shops. Plumbers are already using plug-in type valves and flexible, cold-resistant lines that any fool can install. Electrical wiring can be just as plug and play. As long as you know where the master switch is located, you already can save hundreds of dollars on any single service call if you can replace something yourself. What now seems dangerous and may require an expert can be rendered safe and easy, and it's happening as simple modular elements are created. Gradually homes will be constructed or retrofitted so that just about every feature, sinks, toilets, doors, windows and roofs, you name it, can be bought and installed by the homeowner with "click on, click off" fasteners. Big box home supply stores will offer a "geek squad"-style service to the elderly or those who'd just rather have someone else do it. Not sexy, but inevitable and significant change that's a lot farther along than most people realize. Plumbers and electricians and other home repair services will become rarely used after initial construction, and become symbols of nostalgia, like milkmen or shoe repair shops. Plumbers are already using plug-in type valves and flexible, cold-resistant lines that any fool can install. Electrical wiring can be just as plug and play. As long as you know where the master switch is located, you already can save hundreds of dollars on any single service call if you can replace something yourself. What now seems dangerous and may require an expert can be rendered safe and easy, and it’s happening as simple modular elements are created. Gradually homes will be constructed or retrofitted so that just about every feature, sinks, toilets, doors, windows and roofs, you name it, can be bought and installed by the homeowner with “click on, click off” fasteners. Big box home supply stores will offer a “geek squad”-style service to the elderly or those who’d just rather have someone else do it. Not sexy, but inevitable and significant change that’s a lot farther along than most people realize.

]]> By: hisdevineshadow http://boingboing.net/2008/12/14/tnh-ftw-a-final-post.html#comment-356365 hisdevineshadow Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000 #comment-356365 Harvesting water from air using atmospheric water generators will become more affordable as more necessary as population growth continues in areas with limited resources such as Florida. Harvesting water from air using atmospheric water generators will become more affordable as more necessary as population growth continues in areas with limited resources such as Florida.

]]> By: Anonymous http://boingboing.net/2008/12/14/tnh-ftw-a-final-post.html#comment-357646 Anonymous Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000 #comment-357646 more people will be living in cars than driving them more people will be living in cars than driving them

]]> By: lukus http://boingboing.net/2008/12/14/tnh-ftw-a-final-post.html#comment-356623 lukus Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000 #comment-356623 Geographic boundaries are becoming less important - and corporate / social allegiances now define who we are, more than our nationality / homeland. This trend will continue, leading to the development of a new kind of feudalism. Britain will abandon the pound and join the Euro. Geographic boundaries are becoming less important – and corporate / social allegiances now define who we are, more than our nationality / homeland. This trend will continue, leading to the development of a new kind of feudalism.

Britain will abandon the pound and join the Euro.

]]> By: bruno boutot http://boingboing.net/2008/12/14/tnh-ftw-a-final-post.html#comment-356881 bruno boutot Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000 #comment-356881 5 years is little short but we should at least see the early signs: human beings will become the most valuable capital on Earth and there will be a rush to have them in your community (collective business, group, collaborative space); there will be a race among those groups to save and care for people and keep them in good health. Minds, experiences, pattern recognition and interpretations will become the main currency. 5 years is little short but we should at least see the early signs:
human beings will become the most valuable capital on Earth and there will be a rush to have them in your community (collective business, group, collaborative space); there will be a race among those groups to save and care for people and keep them in good health. Minds, experiences, pattern recognition and interpretations will become the main currency.

]]> By: amitkoth http://boingboing.net/2008/12/14/tnh-ftw-a-final-post.html#comment-356372 amitkoth Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000 #comment-356372 Personal/Social services live in 3 parts, two of which are grossly unrealised: » <b>Attention</b> sharing (status) - as we currently see on facebook, twitter, etc. » <b>Intention</b> sharing » <b>Affect</b> sharing - emotional or sentimental affection In general, status (I'm out for lunch) is a subset of presence (I'm online), and these might be entirely separate from affect and intention. The potential of expressive language that a machine can infer things about - in web communication modes - will go beyond what we have into something that works more like voice or face-to-face. Personal/Social services live in 3 parts, two of which are grossly unrealised:

» Attention sharing (status) – as we currently see on facebook, twitter, etc.

» Intention sharing

» Affect sharing – emotional or sentimental affection

In general, status (I’m out for lunch) is a subset of presence (I’m online), and these might be entirely separate from affect and intention.

The potential of expressive language that a machine can infer things about – in web communication modes – will go beyond what we have into something that works more like voice or face-to-face.

]]> By: jjasper http://boingboing.net/2008/12/14/tnh-ftw-a-final-post.html#comment-356374 jjasper Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000 #comment-356374 In our zeal to prevent "failed states" from being a global menace, we'll start "passing" states that ought to have failed. Better a regional hellhole than a global menace, eh? Tech wise? We'll see less innovation in the next 10 years than we've seen in the last 10 because no one will have funded innovation, and even if they do, people will be too broke to buy whatever services are being used. In our zeal to prevent “failed states” from being a global menace, we’ll start “passing” states that ought to have failed. Better a regional hellhole than a global menace, eh?

Tech wise? We’ll see less innovation in the next 10 years than we’ve seen in the last 10 because no one will have funded innovation, and even if they do, people will be too broke to buy whatever services are being used.

]]> By: Anonymous http://boingboing.net/2008/12/14/tnh-ftw-a-final-post.html#comment-356887 Anonymous Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000 #comment-356887 Countries and nations will be made up of small "colonies" or "villages," that rely on themselves for food stuff (local foods) and clothes and other forms of subsistence. The ability to travel around will be limited for a while (unless we figure out some form of reliable energy source), but -- worry not! -- we'll also be on the internet a lot. We'll be kinda like high-tech Amish people. ~ e-Bomb Countries and nations will be made up of small “colonies” or “villages,” that rely on themselves for food stuff (local foods) and clothes and other forms of subsistence. The ability to travel around will be limited for a while (unless we figure out some form of reliable energy source), but — worry not! — we’ll also be on the internet a lot. We’ll be kinda like high-tech Amish people.

~ e-Bomb

]]> By: jonesp12 http://boingboing.net/2008/12/14/tnh-ftw-a-final-post.html#comment-356376 jonesp12 Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000 #comment-356376 resources scarce. thus, creativity and improvisation will rise. humanity will abound. resources scarce.

thus, creativity and improvisation will rise.

humanity will abound.

]]> By: griffey http://boingboing.net/2008/12/14/tnh-ftw-a-final-post.html#comment-356377 griffey Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000 #comment-356377 I've already predicted this at a handful of conferences, but: As the publishing industry continues it's slowmotion collapse, driven by the same media hubris that killed the music and movie industries, we'll see a rise in the popularization of serial literature of the style a la Dickens and HG Wells. An increasing number of readers are conditioned to consume print in short-form bursts, and the rise of blog-style writing will continue to become more and more popular. At some point the publishing industry, in an attempt to forestall their dropping profits, will realize that ad revenue from serialized lit can help float them for another decade or so, and will jump on board, subsidizing ebook readers or cell phones in order to get their content in front of readers. I’ve already predicted this at a handful of conferences, but:

As the publishing industry continues it’s slowmotion collapse, driven by the same media hubris that killed the music and movie industries, we’ll see a rise in the popularization of serial literature of the style a la Dickens and HG Wells.

An increasing number of readers are conditioned to consume print in short-form bursts, and the rise of blog-style writing will continue to become more and more popular. At some point the publishing industry, in an attempt to forestall their dropping profits, will realize that ad revenue from serialized lit can help float them for another decade or so, and will jump on board, subsidizing ebook readers or cell phones in order to get their content in front of readers.

]]> By: Nelson.C http://boingboing.net/2008/12/14/tnh-ftw-a-final-post.html#comment-356379 Nelson.C Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000 #comment-356379 Maturin: I'll one-up you by predicting that there will be attempts on Obama's life, but that he will survive them. Maturin: I’ll one-up you by predicting that there will be attempts on Obama’s life, but that he will survive them.

]]> By: Fogbank http://boingboing.net/2008/12/14/tnh-ftw-a-final-post.html#comment-356380 Fogbank Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000 #comment-356380 The main point of social Internet services will be to enable meeting face-to-face and provide a platform for people who already regularly meet face-to-face. This will be called "web 3.0". The main point of social Internet services will be to enable meeting face-to-face and provide a platform for people who already regularly meet face-to-face.

This will be called “web 3.0″.

]]> By: fourcultures http://boingboing.net/2008/12/14/tnh-ftw-a-final-post.html#comment-356382 fourcultures Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000 #comment-356382 Unlike the claims of the 'publish without perishing' post, the printed book isn't about to go away. Instead it will enjoy a renaissance within the next five years as a result of ubiquitous print on demand technology like the book espresso machine. Books with any digitised content will be available at 'book shops' instantly, and that will mean any outlet with the right machinery. Unlike the claims of the ‘publish without perishing’ post, the printed book isn’t about to go away. Instead it will enjoy a renaissance within the next five years as a result of ubiquitous print on demand technology like the book espresso machine. Books with any digitised content will be available at ‘book shops’ instantly, and that will mean any outlet with the right machinery.

]]> By: WhamoBlang http://boingboing.net/2008/12/14/tnh-ftw-a-final-post.html#comment-356638 WhamoBlang Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000 #comment-356638 Think about it. Only computers will have changed in the small window of 5 years. And Ray Kurzweil will still be waiting for the singularity. Think about it. Only computers will have changed in the small window of 5 years. And Ray Kurzweil will still be waiting for the singularity.

]]> By: Mister Staal http://boingboing.net/2008/12/14/tnh-ftw-a-final-post.html#comment-356639 Mister Staal Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000 #comment-356639 Nanotechnology and biotechnology will allow us to: A) Cure all diseases B) Forgo external viewing surfaces (optic nerve taps for all!) C) Remove a large percentage of the toxins we've dumped all over the planet. D) Completely annihilate ourselves E) All of the above Nanotechnology and biotechnology will allow us to:
A) Cure all diseases
B) Forgo external viewing surfaces (optic nerve taps for all!)
C) Remove a large percentage of the toxins we’ve dumped all over the planet.
D) Completely annihilate ourselves
E) All of the above

]]> By: animeheart http://boingboing.net/2008/12/14/tnh-ftw-a-final-post.html#comment-356389 animeheart Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000 #comment-356389 longform writing (especially longform magazine articles) will become like opera, but publishing won't die. I don't know why it won't, but it won't. longform writing (especially longform magazine articles) will become like opera, but publishing won’t die. I don’t know why it won’t, but it won’t.

]]> By: zenkat http://boingboing.net/2008/12/14/tnh-ftw-a-final-post.html#comment-356390 zenkat Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000 #comment-356390 OK, I won't make any "predictions" about the ongoing econocataclysm. Predictions are about the future, after all, and that one is firmly present tense. I will predict, however, that this will be our last economic crash. Once the global economy has been shaken to its foundations due to the evaporation of nearly $100 trillion in funny money that was never really there, the 'Net will help catalyze the self-organization of human society and the means of production into a radically new form. The hierarchies of capital and control known as corporations will collapse and be replaced with an ever-shifting network of participation, innovation, and logistics. As a result, the massive concentrations of capital that characterize our current age will become impossible. It will also be impossible to maintain the fictions of scarcity that our current system is predicated upon. Life will be very different. OK, I won’t make any “predictions” about the ongoing econocataclysm. Predictions are about the future, after all, and that one is firmly present tense.

I will predict, however, that this will be our last economic crash. Once the global economy has been shaken to its foundations due to the evaporation of nearly $100 trillion in funny money that was never really there, the ‘Net will help catalyze the self-organization of human society and the means of production into a radically new form. The hierarchies of capital and control known as corporations will collapse and be replaced with an ever-shifting network of participation, innovation, and logistics. As a result, the massive concentrations of capital that characterize our current age will become impossible. It will also be impossible to maintain the fictions of scarcity that our current system is predicated upon.

Life will be very different.

]]> By: gtron http://boingboing.net/2008/12/14/tnh-ftw-a-final-post.html#comment-356392 gtron Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000 #comment-356392 The "invisible wires" that are all around us will prove to be harmful - tumors/cancers/mental disorders will be caused by carrying wireless devices around, and eventually proven (like how long it took for cigarettes to get busted), and the industry will undergo a paradigm shift. ACTUAL novel content will appear in 'new media' that will go mainstream. The disconnect between obvious oxymoronic advertising will be seen through by the masses - example: right now there are high-production-value ads out with a bunch of Macho hunks driving pick-ups thru obstacle courses of virtually no purpose, saying cool things like "this is how we ride" - while the companies that own these gas-guzzling products are BEGGING (indirectly) the viewers to prop them up with a bail-out. Video games will be seen for what they really are, a waste of time, and an excuse to not grow up. Physical violence will increase as a result of blood-sport being mainstream. Something very simple will occur in the ecosystem that will be the butterfly that flaps its wings and is felt around the world. A SARS-like thing that can't be contained. I will eventually pass away, and the world will realize they never really needed me anyway! Until then....... The “invisible wires” that are all around us will prove to be harmful – tumors/cancers/mental disorders will be caused by carrying wireless devices around, and eventually proven (like how long it took for cigarettes to get busted), and the industry will undergo a paradigm shift.

ACTUAL novel content will appear in ‘new media’ that will go mainstream.

The disconnect between obvious oxymoronic advertising will be seen through by the masses – example: right now there are high-production-value ads out with a bunch of Macho hunks driving pick-ups thru obstacle courses of virtually no purpose, saying cool things like “this is how we ride” – while the companies that own these gas-guzzling products are BEGGING (indirectly) the viewers to prop them up with a bail-out.

Video games will be seen for what they really are, a waste of time, and an excuse to not grow up.

Physical violence will increase as a result of blood-sport being mainstream.

Something very simple will occur in the ecosystem that will be the butterfly that flaps its wings and is felt around the world. A SARS-like thing that can’t be contained.

I will eventually pass away, and the world will realize they never really needed me anyway!
Until then…….

]]> By: Takuan http://boingboing.net/2008/12/14/tnh-ftw-a-final-post.html#comment-356395 Takuan Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000 #comment-356395 the last residue of the middle classes will be swept away by a burgeoning new poverty with a heavily guarded elite squatting in their ultimately indefensible fortresses. Something unpredictable will gel to unite a new generation that refuses to accept hopelessness and the center will rise again. They will curse us for our shortsightedness. the last residue of the middle classes will be swept away by a burgeoning new poverty with a heavily guarded elite squatting in their ultimately indefensible fortresses. Something unpredictable will gel to unite a new generation that refuses to accept hopelessness and the center will rise again.
They will curse us for our shortsightedness.

]]> By: CANTFIGHTTHEDITE http://boingboing.net/2008/12/14/tnh-ftw-a-final-post.html#comment-356909 CANTFIGHTTHEDITE Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000 #comment-356909 1. As the difference in services and opportunities between urban and rural areas becomes greater and greater, rural areas will depopulate to minimum levels needed to sustain localized industries (e.g. forestry, mining, tourism) and cities will see growth rates closer to rates of immigration and national population growth rates. The nasty result will be that democracies that fail to recognize this shift and maintain political positions (seats in the whatever) based on land area, and not population, will vote in governments even less representative of actual majority interests than they do today. 2. The mega-corporations of music, movies, and other media will be in danger of bankruptcy as a result of failure to adapt to the market after 20 to 30 years of opportunity to do so. A financial crisis will come around at the same time (current or future) and they'll demand a bailout. Don't if they'll get one, but it will be scary regardless. 1. As the difference in services and opportunities between urban and rural areas becomes greater and greater, rural areas will depopulate to minimum levels needed to sustain localized industries (e.g. forestry, mining, tourism) and cities will see growth rates closer to rates of immigration and national population growth rates. The nasty result will be that democracies that fail to recognize this shift and maintain political positions (seats in the whatever) based on land area, and not population, will vote in governments even less representative of actual majority interests than they do today.

2. The mega-corporations of music, movies, and other media will be in danger of bankruptcy as a result of failure to adapt to the market after 20 to 30 years of opportunity to do so. A financial crisis will come around at the same time (current or future) and they’ll demand a bailout. Don’t if they’ll get one, but it will be scary regardless.

]]> By: Ernunnos http://boingboing.net/2008/12/14/tnh-ftw-a-final-post.html#comment-356399 Ernunnos Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000 #comment-356399 We will discover that we weren't as rich as we thought we were. (No, this is not about the existing financial crisis, the worst is yet to come.) America will default on its debt. Hope and change will not replace credit. Americans will be very, very unhappy about this. Living in America will still beat living almost anywhere else, especially China. We will discover that we weren’t as rich as we thought we were. (No, this is not about the existing financial crisis, the worst is yet to come.)

America will default on its debt.

Hope and change will not replace credit.

Americans will be very, very unhappy about this.

Living in America will still beat living almost anywhere else, especially China.

]]>