The breakup of the United States

Fred Rated

People are stupid.

Yes, Russian people too.

Keeper of the Lantern

A major motivation for my leaving the USA in 2006 was that I resented the use that red states were in effect imposing on my blue state taxes. I saw (and still see) the 2004 republican victory as in effect supporting war as a pretext for this giant tax pump, into states that refuse to innovate or comprehend that they are competitors in a global economy, so that we can build their infrastructure, their military bases and defense contractors, all in the name of protecting us from terrorism.

The ultimate proof of my theory above was that we New Yorkers (who were the overwhelming focus of the 9/11 attacks) voted against Bush while red state America voted for, all in the name of ‘safety’. In other words, red state America knew which side of their bread was buttered, and they had no intention of stopping the party.

So I’d be welcome for a big splitup: Let’s see the hillbillies REALLY “take care of themselves” (as they have always claimed they do) yet without net infusions of blue state money.

Then again, before that would ever happen, they’d certainly launch a war to keep the golden goose from escaping.

Anonymous

The south will go to Mexico. Riiiiiiight.

I don’t doubt the possibility of a breakup of the US, but this proposal seems hopelessly naive.

holtt

Viva Cascadia!

“Welcome to Cascadia, enjoy your visit, with appologies to Tom M.

rb3m

@24 That’s why it’s so coveted.

I doubt that Texas would go with the southern states. If anything the northern Mexican states (Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo LeÃ³n, and Tamaulipas) would also secede and join Texas and perhaps Oklahoma in a new republic.

California may take the other Californias and Sonora, since I don’t think Oregon and Washington will join it. I have trouble picturing Utah going with anyone.

Teresa Nielsen Hayden / Moderator

His handling of Texas is at most his second- or third-craziest error. Tossing South Carolina into the same bin as New England, and dividing the upper and lower Mississippi, defy reason.

acb

I suspect that Panarin’s ignoring of local cultural faultlines is a result of a projection of Russian historical models to America. Russia has always been authoritarian, with the state willing to flatten out regional differences by fiat or force, if need be by forcibly relocating and dispersing huge numbers of people (as both the Czarist state and USSR did). This sort of thing didn’t happen in the US (well, not to non-Native Americans, anyway). Can you imagine Washington, for example, having forcibly dispersed the Mormon polygamists or the Louisiana Acadians? Or Lincoln, after having won the Civil War, forcibly relocating millions of Southerners to the North and replacing them with Northerners to ensure that the South doesn’t rise again?

Ugly Canuck

Well, if the corpse is being dismembered, that Alaskan panhandle could be useful to us.
As to so-called “Canadian influence”? Why, that’s just another way of saying “the influence of plain old good sense”.
Also IMO the correct phrase is “to rise under Canadian influence”, not “to fall under Canadian influence”.

FoetusNail

This reminds one of the Chinese not understanding why Nixon needed to resign. Most people living in other countries, even though possibly better educated and more cosmopolitan, are really not much different than a Georgia redneck trying to comprehend the E.U.

dragonfrog

Randomcat @40

“He didn’t say the wealthy citizens can withhold paying taxes. He said “the wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government” so apparently he thinks the States give money to the Fed, when it’s actually the other way around.”

It works that way because the Fed retains its power. No saying it needs to stay that way. The states allow the Fed to tax their citizens and companies; what if they stopped?

Consider: After introducing its own separate taxation system, Texas begins burning all mailings between its citizens and the IRS, and forbids the transfer of funds from Texan citizens and corporations to the IRS. Texans know they’re more likely to be busted for paying their federal taxes than for withholding them, so there are very few “blockade runners”.

Not that I think the guy’s scenario has credibility – I just don’t think it’s impossible for states to withhold funds from the Fed.

Cinnamonbite

We’ve (Florida) been trying to send the Yankees back North for years!
“If it’s hunting season, why can’t we shoot a tourist?”
“Glad you’re leaving, take a friend.”
“I-4 goes North.”
Join other states? Never. Become part of a rum triangle or drug trade in the Caribbean, sure, but join ya’ll? HA!

nd w DN’T d Mxc. W hv ngh swrthy ppl frm Cb, Prt Rc, nd th Crbbn–ll clnr nd hrdr wrkng thn bnch f frl rng pckrs. Th vry D tht Mxc cld hv sm srt f PWR s t msng!

Antinous

Cinnamonbite,

The joke is, “Why do they call it tourist season if you’re not allowed to hunt them?”

Anonymous

New England together with the “Upper South” (TN, KY, VAs, & the Carolinas)…I don’t think so

AGeekTragedy

Claim that might have some merit: “In the life-time of some of the people reading this the current American republic may either break up or cease to exist”

Claim that is completely ridiculous: “The US will break into these bits, which mostly don’t have natural frontiers between them, next year“

SeamusAndrewMurphy

Western Ma. Yankee here:

So, I get stuck with Rhode Island and Tennessee? How is that fair? I’ll take certain parts of Murfreesboro, but that’s it, and certainly none of Rhode Island.

To the rest of this former U.S., at least I have water. Positively swimming in it… too much, if you consider this past summer.

Hey #38: Putin ought to consider his demographic problem. The idea that Russia is ascendant is curious, to be polite. It’s backward is what it is, and old, so maybe Putin was celebrating “opposite day” when he stated that.

Of course, the U.S. is backward too, not as old, and broke…and corrupt…and very-very broke…and corrupt…and we don’t make much of anything worth exporting except ordinance. Of course, in the next few decades, that might be a booming industry…

Ugly Canuck

Not impossible to withhold funds in whose currency, eh?

Caveman Robot

I think this amazing absurd that this guy is a professor of anything, this map is made by someone with little or know idea about the actual interplay of the states, also that once these states broke away from the U.S.A., why would they allow other nations to take over? I grew up in Texas, not only would Texas never allow Mexico to take over, they would try to take over the south, and for that matter the rest of the country, if they could. Total crap pot flap trap! No understanding of anything real.

Lastly it you want to see a more slightly more plausible map of what the U.S. broken up might look like get a copy of “Give Me Liberty : An American Dream” by Frank Miller and Dave Gibbons. Albeit a sci-fi farce, the map in the end pages of Give Me Liberty, is way more real in terms of how the U.S. would actually break, if such a thing would happen.
This comic was published in 1990, is show what a great visionary cartographer this russian professor is.

pwr

Huh, Long Island’s 2 pixels aren’t pink like the rest of New England, they’re green like California…wonder how they hold out against the New England mainland :)

elNico

I wonder whether Russia would still want Alaska after all that…exposure.

But with the joining being all over the place with this guy, how about teaming up with Tasmania? It’ll work just fine…

Fair bit of “California Ã¼ber Alles” sentiment here…probably makes sense.

This Russian “scenario” aside, it DOES seem inappropriate at times to lump all these completely different states together under the USA banner – this might be completely obvious to North Americans, but I don’t think it is necessarily to the rest of the world.

This thread is bound to be great weekend entertainment.

AGC

I’ve always wondered how many levels of government we need.

i. Municipal
ii. Municipal / regional
iii. State / Provincial
iv. Federal
v. International treaty zone

I’m represented by three elected officials, and numerous appointed ones, but I’ve never met any of them, had a conversation with them, ran into them down the street. Some representative government.

90% of the work done by elected officials could be done over MSN. Meeting in various houses / parliaments seems so steam age ish.

Some people become emotional over their favorite 100 year old chain store being bought out. I guarantee you that store didn’t spend too much time worrying about you.

Ethnicity, race, sex, religion are part delusion momentarily necessary for the economy to functions. Blacks when cotton needed to be picked didn’t have souls. Henry the VIII confiscated the property of the Roman Catholics. Mugabe confiscated the land of white farmers.

Countries are formed by economic ties.

strumpet windsock

Posters who mentioned the urban/rural split are likely on to something.
Rather than cutting up the map like a pizza I would think a city state alliance along the coast and navigable waterways (like a new Hanseatic Bund) is more feasible.
Likewise, if there is to be offshore political influence it is more likely to be restricted to freeports. After all, that is a cheap and easy way colonial powers have always resorted to in the past, and there are countless historical examples of foreign-controlled port cities.

Anonymous

The United States may not breakup, but the states will be so fed up with the Federal government that they will demand their states rights as it was under the Articles of Confederation.uewares ed

Anonymous

It’s always fun to imagine scenarios like this, (How about England as state 51? We can Rename the Country Oceania) but I can’t see this as anything but very quaint propaganda.

robotrevolution

Appalachian states joining the European Union? I don’t think so.

North Dakota (where I live) and other north-central states would be under Minneapolis or Chicago influence – those cities have much more influence than Canada does.

Not a good map – completely unrealistic.

gollux

Oregon, Washington, Idaho and British Columbia will join with Del Norte, Humbolt, Trinity, Siskyou, Modoc, Shasta and Lassen Counties from California to form The Cascade Alliance.

Scuba SM

The Michiganders will dust off (or rebuild) the old rum-running boats from prohibition, invite the Canadian Navy (such as it is) into the Great Lakes, set up fortifications along the bases of the peninsulas, and patrol the new land and water boundaries. :p

atcmmgc

I don’t think we should have any worries about the ruskies getting their hands on Alaska as we all know the Palin’s are on guard watching those commies, (they are right over there you know), and the are breeding more zombie soldiers all the time to keep the Palin army alive.

crackedcup

This one particular Russian professor has been saying this stuff for quite a while … since the early 90′s I think … he obviously doesn’t understand what makes this country tick. The “Texas Republic” scenario cracked me up … the only two Presidents to come from Texas haven’t exactly been stellar leaders (Bush and LBJ) … I give it 24 hours before they change their minds!

freetardzero

#3, thanks- and believe me, if Cascadia ever becomes a reality, BC will be clamoring to be a part of it! It seems that everyone west of the Cascades represents a radically different culture from everything East of us.

As for the gentleman from California (#19) who talked about exporting electricity- why on earth would you export it, when you have to import it from us (British Columbia) just to keep your aircon running all summer? If there’s any exporting of electrical supplies going on during shortages, your politicians should be strung up from the nearest tree, and the rallying cry of your citizens should be “More Rope!” And how, pray tell, do you send it ‘overseas’? By tanker?

Edit: Sorry, I just reread your comment and realised you were being sarcastic! Doh!

Antinous

why on earth would you export it, when you have to import it from us

How would the ilk of Enron make money if we didn’t export the fruit of our wind farms and import the fruit of your water farms? Our water table is dropping because Nestle bottles it and sells it. The electricity from our wind farms is sold elsewhere. The US economy isn’t fueled by production; it’s fueled by moving stuff around on paper.

Patrick Nielsen Hayden

#168: “It’s just a matter of figuring out how to arrange 51 stars”

You think people haven’t been on this?

Antinous

Believe me, I’ve been working on it myself.

Jeffrey McManus

I recall that this kind of hogwash got a lot of play the last time the economy was in the shitter in the 1970s.

Forecasting doom from a totally uninformed yet hysterical viewpoint is fun, apparently!

nobody

Pennsylvania is an often-misunderstood commonwealth. It takes seven hours to cross, and it’s northwest region (comprisig Erie, Pittsburgh, and Buffalo NY) is financially tied more closely to Toronto than to the eastern Scranton and Philadelphia. Under such a scenario, I find the retention of the current Pennsylvania unlikely.

Shauni

@153: Bingo. There is little doubt that the nationalists in Russia are “lapping this up” because it’s something that supports their own views, but the article itself only exists to stir up bad feelings towards those people, and doubtlessly exaggerate this guy’s influence on Russian politics. The spin there is kind of glaring.

Bill Albertson

First off, I doubt that Canada would permit Russia to take it… My guess is that there would be an Alaskan province for Canada there.

For California, I could see the state simply telling the IRS and other Federal agencies to take a flying leap, shelter its citizens, and simply using the existing FTB instead with a slightly higher tax base. The FTB does a better job, and from personal experience they are a lot easier to work deals with as a taxpayer.

This revenue along with having the ability to spearhead membership into the Pacific Union would probably sell the idea for CA’s neighboring states, and might convince WA to come along as well. It would be a win for most of the Pac Rim nations, and I can bet it would make OPEC happy as well (middle east fuel comes in through the pacific states).

When it comes to brass tacks, there’s a lot more that WA and OR have in common with CA than people think (I’ve lived in all three). You have to realize that any new union would be an amalgamation of all the states’ values, which might seem like a weird idea until you realize that they aren’t all THAT different.

Sunfell

I find it amusing that Arkansas is lumped in with Texas- I think we’d rather revert our Louisiana Purchase back to France than ever be tacked to Texas.

They’d probably even take us, too- after we apologize for the ‘cheese-eating surrender monkeys’ thing. Some of us even speak French… sorta.

crashgrab

Will the West Coast or Northeast please claim Austin, Texas?! I don’t want to part of the Texas Republic.

tonixtonix

Notice how all parts of the US now belong to someone else. Seems to me
that after said “civil war,” the winner of said war against their
neighbor would have control of the areas won or those states would
succeed from the union and start their own little countries.
When Russia broke up, the independent states did just that, they
didn’t simply merge and make a friendly agreement to erase the border with the closest
other country next door.
No wonder this guy has been ignored for the past decade.

The only way China is “merging” with California, is if China _invades_ California.

Anonymous

This reminds me of the black chopper kind of conspiracy theories, with the new world order breaking up America into something that makes logic only for the original theorist.
I mean, Utah going for the Pacifica nation?
Interesting nonetheless, I would like to see some fiction set in a world where you have to cross several borders just to visit your family.

Anonymous

The Jesusland & United States of Canada map look more credible than this.

Uncle_Max

I agree with NOBODY @129. I live in Eastern PA (right outside of Allentown), and while I go to Philly several times a month and Wilkes-Barre/Scranton maybe once a month or so, I can’t remember the last time I had any interest in the Western half of the state. The same goes or a friend of mine in Pittsburgh who visits Erie every now and then, but never comes to this side. The only combined interests are occasionally Harrisburg and/or Happy Valley in the middle of the state.

It’s basically the Philly to WB/Scranton corridor on the east, P-burgh to Erie on the west, and then a whole lot of rednecks in the middle.

mdh

Also, what Antinous said at 7 – The Nine Nations idea is much more believable.

Almost to the point of being acceptable.

Lt DirtyFreq

ok here are my thoughts……
1) I live on the WI/IL border.. I don’t even want Wisconsin & I’m in it XD
2) I live between Milwaukee & Chicago & am proud to be a part of both.
3) We have a crap load of Mexicans up here so I think in a way all of America is Mexican influenced… but the Mexicans don’t even want Mexico because they all come up here to get out of their horrible economy (& if we keep going the way we’re heading we might end up like them. Maybe.)
4) Who would start the civil war? How?
5) I bet something like the book SNOW CRASH would be more realistic than what he says. (economy so bad that the mafia has territories. Gangs are rented out & people live in storage units. The book seems to be a bit realistic despite it being a cyberpunk book.)

Anonymous

This maps shows a total lack of understanding of the United States and it’s culture. It’s drawn by convenient and arbitrary lines, not by cultural divisions.

Southern California is culturally different than Northern California, which would align themselves more closely with Oregon and Washington, as an example. I agree that the book “Nine Nations of North America” more accurately defines boundaries.

Many other people have pointed out the other divisions that simply would not work.

Also, the US is very different than the old USSR in that we formed a cohesive union by agreement, over a long period of time, and the people of the USA do identify themselves as members of a single nation, despite their differences, unlike the peoples of the USSR, who were rapidly formed by force as a means of protection. As a whole, the people of the USSR never coalesced into a single nation identity as the USA did. Given difficult times, this lack of a single national identity lead to their breakup. The USSR also had constitutional provisions for a breakup of their union, which the USA does not, so any kind of breakup in the USA would be long, protracted and bloody, caused by times which would take longer than the two years predicted in this scenario. This is in direct contrast to the USSR who had legal provisions in place to facilitate a peaceful breakup should conditions warrant, which is what happened there.

Oh, and California is perfectly capable of maintaining itself as an independent nation – we grow much of the food that feeds the rest of the country, we are the financial center of the Pacific Rim, and are ranked as the fifth strongest economy in the world (with Los Angeles ranked as the eight strongest). We have more Nobel Laureates in residence than any other state, meaning, despite the myth, California is a center for intelligence and ideas, which in turn drive economy. California does generate a large amount of it’s own power, is capable of ramping up power sources and negotiating treaties for importing water, especially since we own the wealth that Arizona lacks, creating a perfect supply/demand situation for that fair trade. Without California, the USA would be greatly diminished on the world scene, unlike many many other states in the union.

Anonymous

I used to think a civil war was possible in the first term of Bush, and I think it would still be possible if Bush somehow got a third term. Now that he’s out though… I think the Americans are too sensible to allow this kind of outcome, even if things get as tough as the analyst suggests.

spanish pantalones

Feel the Illinois, Cascadian bitches. Your nation of panty waste technophiles and lazy hashish addicts will prove no match for our stout farm boys. Cower as you contemplate our stockpiles of methamphetamine. KNEEL BEFORE YOUR MASTERS, GODLESS SWINE. YOU CANNOT RESIST THE POWER OF MIDWESTIA.

– Generalissimo Pantalones

Anonymous

Yeah, I can’t imagine a scenario in which Massachusetts and West Virginia decide to break off and form a new country together.

ill lich

Like divorce, the problem with any breakup scenario is “who gets the goodies”? In this case the “goodies” would mean “nukes.” Any one of these various “republics” would have more nuclear weapons than any country except Russia (and even then, how many do you really need anyway?)

Plus, many of these republics would still have higher GNP’s than most European countries (say what you will about the current recession/depression/scare, but in a world economy when a big cog like the US goes down, she brings everybody down with her to a certain extent). Mexico taking Texas and Florida? It could just as likely be the other way round.

This guy’s theories may have a kernel of truth to them (who knows what the future holds, the USA is relatively young, look how European borders changed since 1776), but clearly he has a chip on his shoulder since the breakup of the USSR (one of the reasons Putin was so popular: he made Russia “great” again in the eyes of many Russians). He also doesn’t really understand the various social/political divisions of the US– NC and SC joining the EU? More likely they’d reform the Confederacy. “The US will split along ethnic lines” just reeks of insular thinking (a la the breakup of the USSR along “ethnic lines.”) The US and Russia have far less in common than he maybe assumes.

Shrdlu

Hey, Atlantic America! Can New Brunswick and Nova Scotia join you instead of West Virginia?

Rodney

Cascadia. Duh.

passionchamp

What makes him think China will only want the Western states? By 2045 we’ll owe China so much debt that they’ll own us… all of us… even our chickens.

Now that’s a more believable headline.

Setharian

I remember seeing a panel of prognosticators on t.v. when I was a teenager and they ALL predicted that Canada would become part of the United States by the year 2000.

katanano

Even in the event of a collapse of the federal government, I really don’t think the divides would be this harsh between states.

No doubt California, Texas, and many other states would like to form their own nations, but the country is already so connected by a century of history, the expansive highway network, and innumerable economic ties, that we really wouldn’t have any choice but to stay together.

mesrop

A book I recently read titled Thirteen by Richard Morgan predicts the country spliting into three parts. The Rim States which are the states boardering the Pacific, The 13 colonies joining again and the rest of it is called the Republic/Jesus Land. The Rim States have a very advanced economy as do the Atlantic ones but the middle is worthless. People are forced to cross over the boarder into California from Navada to find jobs.

Courtney

@ Antinous #88
Is there an opposite to calling dibs?
The opposite of “dibs” is “not it,” signified by touching one’s index finger to one’s nose.

@ acb #110
Who’s going to be #51? Britain joining the US is not in the US’s interests, as it’s more useful to the US as a pro-American presence in the EU, something it would forfeit if it ever became a US state (or FTAA member, as a few Tories suggest from time to time).

Puerto Rico or, more likely, DC statehood.

Antinous

Puerto Rico is a de facto state. As Russia increases ties to Latin America, we may wish to have a stronger claim in the Caribbean than just having a colony. The Puerto Rican independence movement has lost its momentum. It’s just a matter of figuring out how to arrange 51 stars.

mesrop

I believe that California should be a Republic. We produce an insane amount of the nations GDP. The state is very forward thinking. I don’t think we face any problems that we wont be able to overcome. I can honestly see it breaking off with OR and WA maybe taking the bottom half of Navada (Las Vegas).

AliasUndercover

Does anyone honestly think Texas would allow Mexico to rule it? Maybe the other way around.

iveexa

It already has taken the bottom half of Nevada :)

Obligatory borders are rarely accurate indicators of actual cultural influences and territories … drive through these areas and you’ll see the changes are much more gradual. Driving through the bottom half of Nevada or even Kingman, AZ and surrounding areas and it already feels like California (vis a vis culture, the people and their styles/mannerisms/behaviors/ways of talking and interacting).

mcarrick

I think this Russian might want to consider that the way things are headed for his nation China will in a few years control everything east of Tula . . .

Xeno

He already has it wrong if he thinks San Fran, Las Vegas, Hollywood and Seattle are going to want to be bunched together with Utah. I’m sure they would gladly be kicked on over to Montana. I mean… what the hell is their major export beside rocks and religion?

Anonymous

Exactly. While the US might split, it wont in the way he says it will.

Anonymous

Too late for the real world — again.

The U.S. of A. is/has already broken up. California and its sometimes satellite states of Oregon, Nevada, Arizona and Colorado are defiant in the face of the hegemony of the Eastern Elite. The Midwest, without a spine and wishing things were back to the 1950s is tugged this way and that as the two sides vie for power and the poor rust-belt is hoping that something, anything, comes along to save it — even Canada. The states south of Maryland have been deemed brain-optional by the Eastern Elite and so don’t want anything to do with the ‘North’ and Texas thinks its a GD superpower.

The good news: this is, believe it or not, stable. Watch out for the twist if the Midwest ever grows a pair and decides to pick one side or the other. My bet would be the East (where the current money is). With the Midwest (and all that food) solidly behind it

adamnvillani

Could the U.S. break up some day? Sure — nothing lasts forever. But this specific breakup prediction is absolutely ludicrous in every possible way. It’s less of a warning to the U.S. and more of an indication that this KGB professor knows absolutely diddly-squat about the U.S.A. The timeline, geographic split, and foreign influence angle are completely absurd.

That being said, the Russians lap up this crap like gravy only because it distracts them from their own problems back home. I’m not going to presume to know the future, but I’ll take 50:1 odds that, besides minor border realignments, Russia loses territory before the U.S. loses any territory in the 50 states.

Purly

bagsnob posted about this debate just the other day:
http://www.bagsnob.com/2009/01/the_end_of_the_us_not.html#comments

I like the comments over there, since they are from ladies who are mostly just interested in expensive purses. Very rarely do they discuss politics.

I think America questions itself on a regular enough basis that this isn’t a problem. Our self-criticism is an asset, not a cause for division. The welcoming of debate, the discussions, the divisions within society that exist are not defined by state borders. They are by neighborhood, within households. We are separate in mind, but together in name. And the democratic process aids in change when the majority enforces the need for it.

I don’t think a civil war would be possible/practical within the US either. Too few people have the kind of military power needed. It would have to be started by factions within the military itself. And I don’t think that would happen. If the people were the cause of the rebellion and not the military, we would either change the system or go to martial law.

On the theoretical level: the part of the country most likely to take part in riots would be the West Coast; the part of the country where a military faction might take over would be the area surrounding Texas. Everywhere else you can forget about it.

strumpet windsock

Interesting idea, though I think this Russian prof’s map shows how little he knows about politics, culture and geography.

I can see natural ties between Canada and the US northeast and northwest, but the midwest? With the exception of alberta there’s not too much politically in common with the U.S. (and there would probably be war over the water in the rockies). Even the most right wing politicians here would be considered “liberals” by U.S. Republicans, and two of our prairie provinces, Saksatchewan and Manitoba, have a very strong socialist tradition.

I’m not saying there are no similarities between us and the midwest states, and I’m not slagging them, but we do have significant differences.

#26′s map is interesting. Given our current trends the native population here in SK is supposed to hit 50% in the next 40 years.

And I think there are significant things not on the U.S. map. For one, the NW passage, which will soon be ice-free year-round. Canada and the U.S. already have a dispute over whether or not it is an international waterway. And the boreal forest (where all the water is. Here in the west it stretches diagonally northwest from Minnesota up to Yukon) is also likely to be a borderline people will rush for when things start to get dry and hot down south.

Finally, anyone interested in this “alternate history” should study the Red River Rebellion and the founding of the province of Manitoba (1870). Had that story not played out the way it did,and had Prime Minister Sir John A. MacDonald not forced the railway through to what is now B.C. western Canada would almost certainly be part of the U.S. now. It is surprising how close things came to being very different (including an independent native/metis/white state). While I hate the way it was done, I am sure happy of the result – that this is Canada, and not the fulfillment of manifest destiny.

If you’re interested I recommend “Strange Empire” by Joseph Kinsey Howard (an American).

TharkLord

What poppycock!

It is my fervent hope that Queen Califia will return and guide us all to a new golden age.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queen_Califia

andhisband

In related news, the winner of the 2008 Kremlin Risk Tournament, sponsored by Parker Brothers, is Vladimir Strelnikov. After losing in the final round, runner-up Igor Panerin was heard saying, “It’s a stupid game, anyway. You can’t break the United States into just two pieces.”

freshacconci

If the US falls apart like this, Canada will too. I see the Great Lakes States joining with Ontario and Quebec; that makes some sense. The whole Cascadia thing seems plausible. But the way he divides things up does show a profound lack of understanding of North America, as others have pointed out: it’s all based on geographic proximity, nothing else.

Anonymous

Atlantic America may join the European Union? Haha they would have just came out of one crappy union,why would they want to join another? Haha that professor is sniffing the chemicals behind closed doors it seems.

Anonymous

It would make more sense for the Western states from the Canadian border to join Texas in a fifth federation.

But I don’t see anybody taking over one of the federations or even drawing it into a sphere of influence. As long as they kept their military and economic clout intact, each of the five Baby America’s would be more powerful than their enemies.

Can Canada have New York and New England instead of the Rust belt? It would be nice to get back most of the historical territory of the Province of Quebec (between the Ohio and the Mississippi), but I think New England would be a better fit socially, economically and politically.

And it would be nice to have a warm water port (as Russians well know) even if it is New York City Harbour.

Capissen

Just from reviewing the smattering of comments in this thread, I conclude that peoples’ state identities are too strongly ingrained, and even a four- or five-way split of the country along rough geographical and cultural lines wouldn’t be realistic. I think you’d have maybe the Pacific rim combine into one state, New England combine into one state, and then the rest of states basically revert to the classical definition of ‘state’.

(Full disclosure: I’m a Minnesotan and wouldn’t have my state caught dead associating with Wisconsin.)

Anonymous

I can’t see the US actually splitting up. But if it did, a logical division would be the norther east coast, southern east coast, the south, the southwest, the pacific coast with Nevada, the Rocky Mountain states, and then the plains/midwest states. The northern east coast’s capital would be NYC or Boston. The southern east coast’s capital would be Miami. The south’s would be Atlanta. The southwest’s would either be Phoenix or Houston or Dallas. The Pacific coast’s would be Los Angeles or San Francisco. The Rocky mountain capital would most likely be Denver, or maybe Salt Lake City. And the Midwest/Plains capital could be Chicago, Minneapolis, or possibly Omaha.

strumpet windsock

Agreed, freshacconci,

Though I suspect if things go that far southern Quebec will become its own nation, perhaps with New Brunswick and if Vermont wants to join they had better make French their official language. *snicker*

There’s been enough of a push there for sovereignty, but I doubt they would be able to hold onto the northern Cree and Innu territories if Canada fell apart as a nation. I suspect Northern PQ would have more in common with Labrador/Newfoundland.

wkiernan

Regarding the idea of the old Confederacy becoming part of Mexico, it’s worth noting that the GDP of Texas alone is approximately equal to that of all Mexico.

When I consider the folks who live down here in the old Confederacy, the two obvious likely post-breakup scenarios for this region are a.) The New CSA invades Mexico, and b.) the New CSA restores the “peculiar institution” of human slavery.

Anonymous

Oregon says no thanks to Utah and Idaho. The new nation of Cascadia will take BC, though!

obrianw

The prediction of the United States breaking up in 2010 because of economic conditions and a civil war is foolish. We might loose our status as the worlds only super power (not in 2010) but it will be no civil war. I predict if anything the United States will be in a long recession.

georgelazenby

“no US president has ever died under the same flag that he was born under.”

This will be true for about another twenty days.

Anonymous

haha of course he thinks Alaska will go to Russia… seems like he’s never traveled through the US…

Anonymous

“no US president has ever died under the same flag that he was born under.” excuse my ignorance, but can anyone name any president that fits this bill? Reagan, Nixon, Johnson (to name a few) were born in the US and all died in the US…

Antinous

“no US president has ever died under the same flag that he was born under.” excuse my ignorance, but can anyone name any president that fits this bill?

Stars. And we’ll have 51 within the next two decades.

Antinous

California is quite capable of forming our own country without anybody else’s influence, thank you very much.

WarLord

Tax averse federal Gov well on its way to becoming a hollow state, unable to deliver desired services. Local Gov will become hybrid delivering local/state/federal type services to resilient communities.

The final map is a detail – over time the Fed will lose legitamacy (see Madoff et al) and states will have to step up – that will be spendy but avoid anarchy…

…maybe

Might want to keep reading Make. Water filters anyone?

Anonymous

I personaly would prefer the us breaking up into several hundred countries.
For instance in responce to anon I hail from the fireland west of cleveland. We would take amish country and the islands, and want nothing whatsoever to do with cleveland[that goes for toledo also].Sandusky would be our capital.If not I will see u at the battle of crocker park in 2027.

Doc

If we get to choose up sides, I’ll take Arizona, New Mexico, and the Mexican state of Sonora in my new voluntaryist territory of Desertopia!

(Failing that, I’d love it if just Pinal County would leave me alone in my desert wilderness.)

dderidex

Interesting for a sensationalist headline, but it doesn’t seem very well researched. Idaho and Utah would definitely, in his ‘breakup’, be more associated with the ‘Central North America’ group. And Arizona to the ‘Texas Republic’ (which I can’t imagine working out – there is a significant enough cultural divide in that region on either side of the Mississippi).

The idea of Tennessee and the Carolinas having ANYTHING to do with the New England states culturally or economic is just laughable at best – although I could see the New England states attempting to align with the EU.

The big question is – how would one foresee an economic and military collapse of the US so profound that it shatters into this many distinct entities but does NOT (somehow) effect:
- Canada
- Mexico
- China
- The EU
…at all? Doesn’t make any sense!

PeerB

@ #3:
Is W gonna die on the 20th???

FoetusNail

Antinous, the other one cinnimanbite missed is I-4 goes north. All north south interstates are odd numbered. The original bumper sticker was,

U heart NY
Take I-95 N

Anonymous

Duh, Russians “splitting” US for decades. Here another scenario: http://paradoxoff.com/divided-states-of-america.html

cherry shiva

he forgot about Mexicali and Saudi America.

Ohhhsnap

Antinous and I agree on something!

Anonymous

The plot for a three year old PC wargame.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Shattered_union_map.jpg
http://www.2kgames.com/shatteredunion/

Teresa Nielsen Hayden / Moderator

If the United States didn’t fragment back when a lot more people were born, lived, and died in a single area, I can’t imagine it’s going to fragment now.’

Besides, the professor’s map makes no sense. He assumes that the Northeast has more in common with South Carolina than it does with Ontario and Quebec; that Ohio has more in common with Montana, Wyoming, and the Dakotas than it has with Pennsylvania and West Virginia; and that New Mexico has more in common with Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and Florida than it has with Colorado, Utah, and Arizona. He also assumes that New Mexico would want to be part of a smaller federation of states in which Texas swings even more weight than it does now, and that Idaho, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona would want to be part of a smaller nation that’s dominated by California.

He’s apparently unaware of the kind of shared regional interests that give rise to terms like Cascadia, Columbia, Deseret, Aztlan, Appalachia, the Northern Tier, the Deep South, the Great North Woods, New England, the Californian North/South split, and the three different Inland Empires.

His ignorance of continental hydrology and water politics completely disqualifies him as any kind of authority. Water matters a lot more than state boundaries.There’s a big difference between the irrigated and unirrigated agricultural areas of the Midwest. Washington, Oregon, and California all have a marked division between the well-watered coastal areas and the rain-shadowed interior. No way are Arizona and Southern California going to look kindly on a scheme that locates the headwaters of the Colorado River in a separate country.

One of the professor’s weirdest assumptions is that the big, low-population-density states that don’t have a lot of substantial urban areas would want to go it on their own. The big cities always pay more in taxes than they get back in federal services, and the emptier parts of the country always get subsidized. They may talk a good game about wanting to be free of federal interference, but you’re not going to see Alaska or the Intermountain West letting loose of that federal teat they’ve sucked for so long.

The guy’s geographical theories are bunk. It’s far more interesting to look into why he’s writing this nonsense.

George Lazenby @4:

“no US president has ever died under the same flag that he was born under.”

This will be true for about another twenty days.

George, since I don’t believe you intended that as a threat against the President-Elect, what I think you meant was that we’re about to have our first President who stands a good chance of dying under the same flag that he was born under.

Do I have that right?

Kilgore__Trout

What a load of crap!

Where are the Robot & Mutant Republics?

Boarder states pairing up with Canada is the only thing on this map that’s even remotely possible.

No state would merge with China (esp not California), Mexico, or the EU.

Takuan

published 1981
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nine_Nations_of_North_America

Antinous

The Nine Nations are much more representative of existing cultural boundaries. I like that there’s a North American Rub’ al Khali. I’m glad that I don’t live in it.

Nora

There’s no way in hell most New Mexicans would join something called the “Texas Republic”. We might join with Mexico but I don’t think we’d want Texans for company.

OM

“I find it amusing that Arkansas is lumped in with Texas- I think we’d rather revert our Louisiana Purchase back to France than ever be tacked to Texas. “

…That’s otay. Considering Arkansas’ contribution has been Slick Willie and his ilk, we’d be glad to support the notion of giving you back to France :-) :-) ;-)

Xeno

California may be capable of FORMING your own country but not SUSTAINING one. You guys burn through money like it’s going out of style. How long has your state been in a financial crisis and yet you elected a ‘action hero’ with the IQ of a chicken McNugget? No offense to any chicken McNuggets out there.

That and you rely on Oregon and Washington for water AND electricity constantly. You can can start a country all you want but all those states around you are gonna start bleeding you dry once you do if you leave them out in the cold.

Antinous

California is a huge agricultural producer. We produce plenty of electricity, which is mostly sold overseas. We already know how to ration water, a painful transition that other states will soon discover. We also have Pacific Rim trade, the film industry, Silicon Valley and one of the biggest tourist industries in the world. California without the other 49 would still be a world leader.

batchild

…and anyone in WA knows that the Cascades not only blocks the weather but also culture and ideas from crossing over. Cascadia is a well documented idea, funny how it’s not here. This map looks suspiciously like the divisions of the US from the tv show Jericho.

OM

“In related news, the winner of the 2008 Kremlin Risk Tournament, sponsored by Parker Brothers, is Vladimir Strelnikov. After losing in the final round, runner-up Igor Panerin was heard saying, “It’s a stupid game, anyway. You can’t break the United States into just two pieces.”

…I submit for the judges that *this* has been the best reply to this insanse “what if?” so far. Congrats, sir!

BeetleJu1ce

I had a professor 10 years ago that predicted the split up of the US. He was an American (white guy) professor teaching world history.

Teller

I’ll take southern Utah and align with Bali.

batchild

@Xeno Cali has all the avocados. I would trade hydro for them.

Hanglyman

So it’s pretty much just: break up the United States roughly into fourths. Whichever country the outermost edge of a piece happens to be facing, will own that piece in the future. Wow, that’s… really complicated and thought provoking.

Small Om

This map completely ignores waterways, if an area goes to Canada it’d most likely consolidate the great lakes. So Indiana,Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and New York would be more likely to group than New york with South Carolina. Same would go with control of the Mississippi river

It also ignores energy and military installments(the 4th marine division is headquartered in Texas). Texas would be more likely to be the first state to pass pro-gay marriage legislation than merge with Mexico. the West coast and hawaii(the former the home of the 1st marine division, the latter the home of the Pacific Fleet, and countless nuclear weapons in New Mexico and Arizona) would most certainly not ally itself with China. Balkanization would have to have energy sustainability, so you could group the south together, Colorado with the West.

Anonymous

This kind of international naivete must be a byproduct of Putin’s gutting of the Russian media. There’s a much greater chance of China falling apart (of Xinjiang revolting, even more than Tibet) by 2010 than there is of the US breaking up.

People outside the US misunderstand the nature of US ethnic identity. The most important “ethnic” split in the US is and has always been rural/urban. The fault lines in our society don’t follow the borders, they follow the lines of population density. And neither side can live without the other – the blue states would starve without the red, and the red states would freeze without the blue (really red and blue counties – the whole idea that states are red or blue is an artifact of our electoral college) . The biggest risk for US disunity is the ruralization of the military and the technocratization of the government – as the folks with the guns become redder and the folks with the offices become bluer, there’s a growing alienation between the professional military and their civilian leaders that could lead to trouble down the road. But that trouble would not be a matter of regionalism – it would be genuine Civil War, not another War Between the States.

With the exception of Texas, the richest states are also the ones with the most progressive taxation policies. In the US, innovation is at least as valuable as resources.

The idea that even the most nominally Europhilic states like Massachusetts or New York would join the EU is patently absurd – it’s best to remember that US Europhilia is primarily Anglophilia, and even the Brits barely find the EU tolerable.

If Russian strategists are counting on a balkanization of the US anytime in the next two generations, well, they’d better not be holding their breath.

airship

What? No city states? Most states totally resent how much of their rural resources are drained off to support their big cities. Upstate New York hates New York City. Downstate Illinois hates Chicago. Forcing the big cities out would probably be a state’s first response in a huge economic crash and governmental reorganization.

But the response is likely to be different wherever you go. California’s been aching to split for decades. Texas still considers itself a republic. The Western states are fiercely independent. Etc.

mdh

New England hereby calls dibs on New Brunswick, Newfoundland, and PEI

Antinous

Is there an opposite to calling dibs?

consideredopinion

Fun cud to chew on, but not at all realistic, by 2010 least of all.

My tuppence on the most realistic post-USA model for America is probably a management model close to the old Holy Roman Empire. Plenty of local bosses calling the shots, but an ongoing need for a higher intermediary to referee or end a feud. Not sure if any part of the US would become overtly controlled by organized criminal interest like Sicily…well, besides incorrigibly corrupt Louisiana anyway.

Oh, and all the maps have to account for: bioregionalism, lost/new ethnic relevance, refugees/IDPs, post-peak oil localism, and climate change/sea level rise. There won’t be much of Florida (or habitable eastern seaboard cities due to flooded sewageworks) by 2050.

strumpet windsock

tonixtonix

You don’t have to invade a country in order to control it. If you have enough control of the economy and resources why would you even want to get your hands dirty with political control?

Let the masses take care of keeping the streets swept and imagine they’re actually running the show.

Again, that’s how the smart colonists have always done it, and with increasingly powerful companies less tied to nation-states, it’s that much easier nowadays.

Didn’t Haliburton move their head office to the middle east last year? Kind of makes you wonder Who is running whom.

toothygrin2010

I know one thing, actually two things. It isn’t funny and its downright scary.

Anonymous

The map is ludicrous and shows no appreciation or knowledge of the social landscape of our country. California itself could easily be three countries. While I believe that some portions of states, would become part of Canada or Mexico, if there was a collapse of the union, it would result more likely in probably twenty to thirty independent countries.

I also think the timeline is absurd. 2010? Impossible, the people just do not have the ambition to do what’s right for themselves (See: US Congress, Senate, Governorship, and State Initiatives 1909-present; and Presidency 1909-1980, 1988-present). If it was 2050, I would believe in a more certain dissolving of the county. In fact, I would be amazed if we were not at least three countries by 2056. But as it stands now, there is no driving impetus to cause the country to fracture and consolidate as functional entities.

Antinous

there is no driving impetus to cause the country to fracture and consolidate as functional entities.

Has there ever been an impetus to break up countries/empires other than ethnic strife? Break-ups are generally about reclaiming ancient homelands. That’s unlikely to happen here. Although I’m screwed if it does since I live on tribal land.

squirrelgirl

Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont, would most likely lobby to become part of Canada.

consideredopinion

#84 anonymous – well said!

Actually, those Russian strategists banking on a balkanized US *should* hold their breath – then they might stop speaking such drivel, and shortly choke themselves to death. ;-)

max

i don’t think this Russian really understands popular sentiments within the United States. There is no way in hell Mexico or Canada would ever hold any influence of a group of Americans. it just couldn’t work. I’m not even particularly nationalistic and i would rather be dead than know my country were weak enough to be controlled by Canadians. It’s the political equivalent to becoming a castrato (I do admire QuÃ©bÃ©cois Separatists though). And if you think Texas would allow a Latin American country exert control over it, you’d be overlooking the neo-Alamo spirit that’s putting up fencing and minutemen sentinels all across the border. Racism is alive and strong. That said Russia can have Alaska and her meth labs.

consideredopinion

Oh, and Alaska to Russia? Even with the oil, minerals, and timber … Alaska is too subsidy-dependent for anyone else to afford really. If Uncle Sam becomes so bankrupt that he can’t afford Alaska anymore, my bet is Alaska will become a semi-autonomous province or territory of Canada.

rimskykorsakov

The geographic/cultural breakdown is hardly accurate. Utah would never be in the same country as California. South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, part of the European Union? Definitely not. The “Central-North American Republic” is far to expansive…

Takuan

if the inability of the oil sheiks to satisfy their own people in time of plenty produced bin Laden, what will the coming economic depression create in America? Where will they come from and where will they make their constituency? A certain symmetry appears.

Kieran O’Neill

#24: Takuan, apparently they’ve had tinfoil since about 2000 years before Nostradamus…

(Whether they made hats out of it is another story, however.)

guy_jin

I toyed with the idea of how the united states might divide in the future – the most likely way, it seemed to me, was largely along red state/blue state lines:

new england, the great lakes states, and the upper midwest, and maybe the southern third of Florida, and puerto rico, would be what’s left of the United States.

The old south, the central corridor, and most of the rocky mountain states would form a new CAS.

California, Nevada, Hawaii, and the rest of the left coast would form a third country.

there are a few states that could go either way in this scenario; Missouri, West virginia, maybe even Virginia, New Mexico and Colorado; in the latter cases they might end up as an exclave unless some sort of ‘bridge’ can be made through the territory of another state (the Arizona Indian reservations?); Alaska would go with whichever group would help it the most/harm it the least, or simply go its own way.

Kieran O’Neill

So here’s a question: If a split-up did happen, on whatever lines that would be, who would get the nukes … ?

Russia managed to hang on to theirs, but when the USSR fragmented, they (well, the Russian Federation) were clearly the dominant power.

elNico

Ok, I RTFA.

There’s no more data than the map displayed here and some anecdotes about the guy himself, unless I’m missing something.

There’s tons of hilarious quote material, though…

“When I pushed the button on my computer and the map of the United States disintegrated, hundreds of people cried out in surprise,”

Now that’s a Powerpoint presentation I’d go to…who was in that audience I wonder?

To be honest, the whole article could appear on The Onion with very few edits…I don’t read WSJ, maybe that’s normal.

That aside, New York and California should join the EU…it’ll be awesome.

pilcrow

In other news, Mark bought the highly-coveted tinfoil hat of Nostradamus’s off ebay for just $1.99!!!

things

john titor!!!

dmoisan

I live in Salem, MA, the beating heart of old Puritan America. (Banned in Boston, or scared in Boston if you remember the Mooninite scare.) We have far more in common with Quebec than the EU. Many old French-Canadians went down what is now MA 114 and stopped here to make a living.

ISTR Huntington (“Clash of Civilizations”) quoting a historian who said the US would not exist by 2400, which is certainly possible or even probable, but 2010?

And has no one read or heard of “Albion’s Seed”?

Teller

Xeno:

Odd coincidence, but last night I had dinner with a hydrologist/activist who deals with water management in California. Mostly he deals with the state to get salmon back in the rivers. Solid guy. Asked him if we take water from Ore or Wash. Said no. You say yes. So, now I don’t know. btw, he dislikes the reckless ag use of water in Calif and says we have plenty and just waste a lot, so that’s his bias.

Cicada

“Has there ever been an impetus to break up countries/empires other than ethnic strife?”

Does the bit of strife in the US between Northern and Southern British-descendents over African-descendents kept as property count?

Antinous

I guess that I should have qualified it with ‘successful’.

Anonymous

Alexis de Toqueville did a good of predicting how, and in what fashion the US would split along cultural lines before the Civil War. He was foreign, but then, he also traveled the US himself, and was a very keen observer.

During the cold war his remarks about the rise of two previously unknown powers, the US and Russia, must likewise have seemed prophetic.

Regarding doom: Frankly I consider the idea that the US may break up into smaller districts very optimistic, I don’t see how the problems that we call gridlock, or the increasing government control of citizens can ever be dealt with until there are smaller political units within which to take action.

Of course I’ll have to move, as an atheist I doubt Texas would want me if they had more to say about it. I hope I could still find people who were not too bigoted to accept me, perhaps in New Hampshire, Vermont, or perhaps in one of the western provinces of the country where my father was born.

It’s amazing how harshly people judge your intelligence by cultural differences once your matching skin color gives them license to do so.

In any event, I’m sure Texas will do very well without me, and that they will also find a relative prosperity even without California or New York.

Takuan

they didn’t have tinfoil back then

Simon Cameron

@Antonious

I think the point that the poster was trying to make is that the U.S. is currently not experiencing the entrenched, ethnic conflict required to cause a break up.

Antinous

That would also be the point that I was making.

Tirjasdyn

the map shows a complete lack of understanding for water issues in the US as well as a bad guesstiment of ethnic lines.

Trevor Stone

If we’re dividing along ethnic lines, shouldn’t Florida be in the same country as Arizona and New Mexico? Hispanics and rich old people…

Blacks could declare independence of urban centers (the country could be called Chocolate City) and have as much luck maintaining an impoverished, militarily inferior noncontiguous country as the Palestinian Authority has. News reports of “Rockets being fired on suburban settlements” would be a regular feature.

I’m curious how California would come under Chinese control when the PRC can’t even take over Taiwan. And anyone who thinks Texas would become part of Mexico again hasn’t seen their license plate…

Cicada

@98- Well, there was always the revolt of British colonists against the British Empire…notoriously starting 1776, but done more gently and less violently by Canada, Australia, etc, all of which detached themselves from the Empire despite being fairly ethnically similar.

Or perhaps the current separation of Taiwan and the PRC would be another good example– the division was political, rather than ethnic.

Anonymous

“wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government”

This alone shows a total misunderstanding of the political structure of the U.S. States don’t pay taxes, people do. States actually rely heavily on the federal government sharing the taxes it collects and the money it prints.

Besides, as the current National Guard situation shows, the military works for the federal government.

This kind of nonsense strike a nerve because it feeds into the survivalist bullshit we always hear during recessionary periods.

Anonymous

Will people please stop lumping Ohio in with the midwest. Kentucky is further west than Ohio. Ohio is in the Eastern time zone and New York City is closer than Iowa. I’m from Cleveland and it has no similarities to Omaha or Minneapolis or whatever. It is much more of an Eastern city. Look at the map people.

Anonymous

I’m pulling for the United Canadian and American States.

themiddleroad

It’s certainly possible that the US would breakup sometime in the distant future, but there’s no reason for it to happen anytime soon. We made it through many depressions as a nation with, as #82 said, people being born, living, and dying in the same area.

What current trend might make it happen? Republicans destroying the federal government, weakening oversight then leading to violent resource squabbling between states. Imagine California National Guard taking over a power stations in other states. The thing is, it would take many years of Republican control, something that just doesn’t happen. The presidency and congress keep switching back and forth, leading to a sine wave government, swinging back and forth down a path of functionality.

darren

It’s amazing this Russian troll is getting so much traction.

Tennessee and South Carolina join the E.U.? Kansas and Missouri join Canada? Those points pretty much disqualify this bozo from making any sort predictions about North America.

Stuff like Cascadia or The United States of Canada are if nothing else amusing and at least demonstrate a basic understanding of North America. This Russian, on the other hand, just doesn’t have a clue.

Teller

Xeno: While the Sierra Nevada is higher and prettier than the Cascades, it doesn’t always provide us all the water we need. We’re happy whenever we can help you get rid of your super-excess.

Trevor Stone

@98, 102

Most of the recent independence declarations in the last few decades have been ethnically tied. But that’s because many of the countries created in the first 60 years of the 20th Century were drawn on a map by a bureaucrat in an office in western Europe somewhere. See: Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia, Israel, Iraq, India/Pakistan/Bangladesh. (In the latter case, I’m not sure any British bureaucrat has caused more human carnage than the guy who drew the border through the Indus valley and said “All the Muslims, go over there! All the Hindus, go over there!”) Other recent new countries (Eritrea, East Timor) were necessarily drawn arbitrarily, but they were places with a markedly different ethnic group who finally won out over the central influence.

But if you look past the last few decades, you’ll find a lot of countries that declared independence for economic, political, or geographical reasons over ethnic ones.

Norwegians and Swedes certainly have jokes about the other group, but a driving force in Norway’s independence movement was a desire for greater world presence. Norwegian seafarers traded as far away as Japan, but the Swedes weren’t that into far-flung places.

Overseas colonies of European powers realized they could do much better for themselves economically and politically if they had more local control. Think USA and Latin America.

And Taiwan was formed when the Chinese elites took all the country’s gold to the closest island and subjugated the native Formosans. There are probably other countries with a similar founding principle.

The Soviet states were happy to break off from the U.S.S.R. in part because they didn’t have a lot in common with each other. The languages, culture, religion, and racial characteristics of Tajikistan are nothing like those of Lithuania. Yet they didn’t split off and form super-former-Soviet states; the states kept their borders and became countries. In the U.S., on the other hand, states on opposite sides of the country have a lot more in common. We all speak the same language (even most of the Spanish speakers know English pretty well), we all have very similar forms of government, quirks aside we have the same cultural practices (Thanksgiving, football, shopping malls, complaining about the government), and the dominant religious belief in every state is worship of a guy in the middle east 2000 years ago who thought he was the son of a god. With generations of unfettered movement across the country, Americans have more in common with self-selecting groups (religious denominations, subcultures, Internet message boards) across the country than they do with their next-door neighbors. Who wants to found the nation of Boing Boingia?

Xeno

@Teller: The last time Cali took Washington and Oregegons ‘excess’ water and electricity, it left us in a draught. California can’t manage its resources or consumption of resources and relys HEAVILY on external states for their resources.

Maintaining a state that is part of a union is one thing when other states are obliged to help. Maintaining a country when those other countries don’t have to help you is another thing entirely.

Superfluous Moniker

The fact that he basically just lumps the states together based on geographic location shows how much thought went into this…

I mean, Canadian influence spreads all the way to Colorado and Kansas? The Chinese influencing Idaho and Utah? Really?

Geof

Regarding breakups, ethnic strife is certainly not the only (or even the main) reason for them. In many cases, ethnic strife is itself a symptom of a deeper problem, such as economic or environmental pressures.

I recently read The Collapse of Complex Societies, in which Joseph Tainter argues that societies collapse as a result of diminishing marginal returns from increasing complexity. In response to diverse pressures and changing circumstances, they adapt, becoming more and more complex (complexity seldom diminishes). In many cases, the situation reaches a point at which the people actually prefer collapse to continuing to live under the current regime, and the society collapses (i.e. undergoes a rapid decline in complexity). He deals specifically with two major techniques for avoiding collapse, technological innovation and new sources of energy, but argues that these too suffer from diminishing marginal returns and therefore offer no way out.

Tainter is an archaeologist; he applies his theory to several historical collapses, such as the Maya, the Romans, and so on. I found his theory plausible, but I didn’t find the cases he examined were sufficient to demonstrate in convincingly (maybe I don’t know enough about them).

In the case of the U.S., high taxes combined with decaying government services (hello financial crisis – ironically, I bought the book the day before the stock market tanked due to the Lehman collapse), energy shortages, and environmental collapse (e.g. water shortages, sea level rises) look like the most obvious triggers, not ethnic conflict – although that might soon follow as groups try to take what they can to protect themselves or defend their standard of living.

Noelegy

I for one welcome our insect overlords….

minTphresh

the only thing remotely like this that has any chance ( albeit slim) of succeeding (seceding!OWOW!) would be the Lakota/Sioux nation in the Dakotas splitting off from the u.s.due to treaty infringements. the elite of this country ( and others) are pushing for more the “North American Union’ type thing with mex., and can. hell, the mints are already printing the “Amero”! the soviet who wrote this report just had his head up his ass. he has no idea about uhmerkin psychology. the southern states with the northern states with europe? give me a fukkin break! floriduh with taxus? the sheer stupidity of the statement makes me giggle. giggle like a little gurl.

randomcat

The wealthier states are going to withhold money from the Fed? Hahahahaa, when did they start giving money to the Fed? I think this guy’s predictions can safely be ignored.

Bucket

I totally want this to happen.

Then, when the states fragment, the only way to trade will be via zeppelin.

Then I can finally realize my dream of becoming an air pirate.

Perhaps I should start putting together my ragtag pirate crew together early before the rush. Off to craigslist!

WarLord

As long as we’re talking the map – eastern and western North and South Dakota have cultural break at the Missouri River. Farms east and ranches west. I’m guessing Nebraska as well.

So any such splintering won’t be by neat state line. the ‘Cultural Boundaries’ not so neat. I’m guessing Calif. breaks N&S same way.

Minnesota would likely go with WI, Iowa, eastern SD & ND, likely eastern NE and maybe ag based N IL and probably wheat fields of Manitoba to Winnipeg.

When oil hits 250 I give it 10 years to the endgame

tw15

Mass.to Ireland?
PA to Germany?
Minnesota to Norway?
NY to the Netherlands?

wynneth

@12 – That’s the kind of thing that causes these dividing lines. It’s not enough we have to live with racists and nationalists, but apparently we need more general bigotry??? It’s a good thing you didn’t say “New Yorkers” or you’d probably already have Homeland Security breathing down your neck.

Kblackwell

Montana and Ohio together?
No, this is quite dumb and does not take simple geography into account.
Whoever did this is insane.
Also, about Presidents not dying under the same flag… WTF? Was JFK not born in the USA? Johnson? Nixon? Ford? Reagan?
Is it about the number of stars on the USA flag? That I could see.
But just because we haven’t added a state since 1959 doesn’t mean that it’s a Constitutional mandate that Presidents must die under a different flag. Duh.

leonjacobs

Lol. There is no way the ruskies are going to take on Gov. Palin and her lot.

bcsizemo

Amazing how he lumps together separate parts that are needed for the whole to operate. I guess the midwest could hold the world and the rest of America ransom for grain, Texasland has some oil, the east cost…(shipping maybe? steel and cars, but who wants that?), and the west coast has a little of everything. Face it people either together we stand or divided we fail (yeah I know it’s fall). And frankly we should just go ahead and pony up and rename it to either:

Amerialand (or) Americaland

OR:

The United Socialist Republic of America

pinehead

Seems one part educated guess and two parts wishful thinking.

Once you depart the densely-populated urban regions of the east and west coasts, you come to find that most of the US is fairly relaxed. Nobody wants to split-up (except maybe a few people in New Hampshire).

The guy also apparently has no understanding of how our tax system works. The wealthy can’t just opt-out of our society and starve the rest of us. If they tried it, the government would simply seize their assets and throw them in prison.

WarLord

# 25 you’re probably right.

The Great lakes Sates and bordering Canadian Provinces probably have more in common then not esp when the water gives them so much leverage

That also makes some interesting allliances up and down the Mississippi/Missouria River and tributaries and the watersheds underneath

Calif/Nevada/Ariz etc sorry about that, good luck with that Lake Mead thingy

elNico

@#137 adamnvillani

That being said, the Russians lap up this crap like gravy only because it distracts them from their own problems back home.

Just out of interest…how do you know this?

BB and WSJ is certainly lapping it up…and why not…it’s about wider issues. I’m just guessing, but there’s probably very few Russians here, lapping or otherwise.

W. James Au

Putin is actively pushing the Russian educational system to rewrite the nation’s history in their textbooks, especially in relation to the US. In Putin’s eyes, for example, Stalin made a few mistakes but it really wasn’t as bad as the West (or for that matter, the eyewitness testimony of ex-Soviet dissidents) claims, and in any case, the US is on its way to disaster while Russia is on the ascent. Educators are following suit, in what amounts to nationalist propaganda, which the above seems to be part of. Here’s some important (and disturbing) background from The New Republic:

http://www.tnr.com/booksarts/story.html?id=27ab9fbc-6e71-4795-8608-5875a0ce6fb6

acb

Stars. And we’ll have 51 within the next two decades.

Who’s going to be #51? Britain joining the US is not in the US’s interests, as it’s more useful to the US as a pro-American presence in the EU, something it would forfeit if it ever became a US state (or FTAA member, as a few Tories suggest from time to time).

randomcat

@36: He didn’t say the wealthy citizens can withhold paying taxes. He said “the wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government” so apparently he thinks the States give money to the Fed, when it’s actually the other way around. So you’re right, this guy has no understanding of how our tax system works, among other things.

Ryganas

A lot of people have (relatively) small quibbles with the proposed map:

For instance, there’s a great to-do about the inclusion of specific states within particular regions. I think these people are missing the point.

Ryganas

Oh, wait. Hold the phone.

Texas to Mexico?!?1

Canada willing to take on the likes of Kansas and Nebraska?

Insane.

And I’m not even being sarcastic.

Zig

Personally I always liked the broken up north America in the pen and paper RPG Shadowrun.

http://seventh-legion.net/images/0/06/Map_of_North_America_Circa_2070.png

Sandbox World

Last time I checked this map looks a bit like the one that George Bush carries with him.
http://yoga108.org/images/blog/2007/383.jpg

Comrade7

I, for one, welcome our new lion (or gorilla or tiger or rat) overlords….

http://www.thecomicshop.com.au/site2/kamandi/page2.html

PrometheusG

If it ever came to a vote, I don’t think Texans would join with ANY other states. Mexico is right out the window.

Boys, it’s about time we dust off the Republic of Texas! Seriously, growing up in Texas, we learned as much about Stephen F. Austin and Sam Houston as we did about Washington and Lincoln. We’ve been raised to believe we’re “different” from everyone in other states.

“Texas. It’s like a whole other country.”

OM

…This Russkie has quite a few misconceptions about the sociopolitical makeup of the US. Some notable major misconceptions are as follows:

0) He obviously doesn’t take into account that some of the northern states except for Moosylvania may consider unifying with Canada.

1) The Left Coast would most likely be split into two sections, Northern California up through Washington, and SoCal down through Baja, which would be taken away from Mexico with very little problem.

2) Despite the increasing percentages of Mexican nationals illegally settling in Texas, there is no way that the surrounding former Confederate States would allow the economic resources of Texas to fall into Mexico’s hands. In fact, the other regions of the splintered US would more than likely find a Mexican takeover of Texas a reason to reunite is far more likely.

3) Alaska would be more apt to remain independent so long as the oil reserves maintained its economic backbone. Without the oil, Russia wouldn’t have that much interest in a region as harsh as Siberia, and would be more prone to letting Alaska join up with Canada.

…After reading this, it makes me wonder if the author hadn’t been inspired by Amerika, which was also about as implausible as his breakup scenario.

Graham Anderson

Wot, no Gilead?

nathanrudy

The Carolinas, Kentucky and Tennessee go to the North? This guy should lose his tenure.

Ugly Canuck

No. 51 may well be Puerto Rico.

elNico

#154 Shauni

I’m not saying it’s not the case, I asked for some evidence going beyond what some American assumes the majority of Russia thinks…you’re not really offering anything new.

There might be a Russia Fox channel I don’t get in my area…

musicpsych

Wow, some of the Californians here could probably be mistaken for Texans, at least as far as state pride goes…

A lot of the things I was going to say have already been said. I think states are too interconnected to split cleanly like the crazy Russian guy proposed. Besides, it would suck to need a passport for inter-republic travel.

I wonder how corporations would react to such a split, or what sort of influence they’d try to exert (if any). I wouldn’t think it would be good for business, with materials crossing many now-foreign borders before they can be used. Products would be hard to sell and market.

One question I have – in this model, do the individual states within each new republic remain states, or do the state borders dissolve and the whole republic is treated as one unit? It’s odd to talk about the “breakup of the United States,” since in a way the US is already broken up into different states. Even if there were a breakup, I can’t imagine that the states would not cooperate in some way. Maybe it would be called the “American Union” instead of the “United States.”

HittiteCreosote

I’d take some convincing that any real thought has gone into this, rather than some form of nationalistic sulking that the Baltic states have joined the EU.

Would this take over of the west of North America happen before or after the Chinese take Siberia off the Russians?

joellevand

I am no longer afraid of KGB “intelligence”. If they really think any southern state would come allies with the Midatlantic states — you know, the ones that aren’t “pro-America” as Sarah Palin put it–they really haven’t paid attention to this country.

But to think TEXAS would ally with ANY other state–especially the Deep South–is laughable. And to state that TEXAS would then, with its allies, cede to MEXICAN control is insane. Period.

Remember the f**king Alamo, indeed.

hobomike

Let me suggest a few other scenarios:

1) a break-up of the US between The Coasts and The “Fly-Over” States. The country would look like this: ( )

3) a break-up of the US between The Christians and Everybody Else. How about we give The Christians the SE and Florida: Q

4) a break-up of the US between NASCAR fans and Everybody Else. Like this: =

5) a break-up of the US between Vegans and Everybody Else.
Like this: .

Anonymous

Texas would most certainly cede and form its own Republic once again. This is the only state that has it’s own _National_ beer. (Lone Star beer, look it up and read the promotional material closely). There would be riots, and people would _literally_ be up in arms against joining the Mexicans. To keep the electoral college somewhat balanced, Texas and California would cede at the same time to form their own independent republics. California would cede it’s northern most counties to Oregon in the process most likely due to cultural and geopolitical differences (they’ve tried to cede on their own before). Overall it wouldn’t be a full departure, they’d likely share the same currency and be part of an American Union similar to the EU.

strumpet windsock

I know you’re just kidding, Max.

I’m joking too about how interesting it would be for Canada to turn off the pipelines and switch off the powergrid as a little demonstration.

Seriously, we all know the U.S. is the most powerful nation in North America, and has way too much control over Canada, but it’s not just a one-way street. I have many friends down in the U.S. and most are aware of the advantages and disadvantages of living next to your culture.

Given our current situation, I am happy to be on this side of the border living in a “weak” country with no Digital Millenium Copyright Act, no Homeland Security, no rampant religious fundamentalism,
… and with universal healthcare, and almost a decade of federal budget surpluses (though that is likely to turn into a deficit this year, thanks to YOUR crash).

For the moment, I don’t think there are too many of us interested in rushing down to take over. I’d trade our prime minister for your incoming president, though.

And by the way, sorry we burned down your first White House.

buddy66

I’ve always liked the idea of Pacifica â€” from Alaska to Mazatlan, inland to the Cascades. Imagine that.

tim

This is silly; every knows that norcal, oregon, washington will join with BC and annex alaska (to save it) to reform Columbia; which will then lobby to join the Commonwealth since it is as near as possible to returning to the British Empire. What do you mena, not everyone knew? Have I leaked The Plan? Oh dear.

Alberta will join texas (there’s a reason we call it texas north) and probably some of the other idiot wingnut states to form Oilsylvania. Most of the midwest and southerly states will be crushed into Jebusland and the norheast will be frozen solid when the gulfstream stops, leaving no one living there apart from die-hard(-frozen) PRM types. Oh and NH will finally become a Libertarian Occupied Territory when everyone with more sense moves out. Florida? Who cares?

The breakup of the United States

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