First novel survey results

Steven sez, "Author Jim C. Hines did a survey of the factors that may (or may not have) impacted first novel sales, getting responses from 246 professionally published authors. It's pretty fascinating reading. Since Jim's a friend of mine, I asked if I could take my own whack at his data. Mine's a lot more stats-geeky than his... but his is a lot more fun to read."

So how long does it take to sell that book? Of our 246 authors, the average age at the time they sold their first professional novel was 36.2 years old. The median was also 36, and the mode was 37. Basically, the mid-to-late 30's is a good age to sell a book.

But that doesn't tell us how long these authors were working at their craft. So the very next question in the survey asked, "How many years had you been writing before you made your first professional novel sale?"

The responses ranged from a single respondent who said 0 years, all the way to 41 years, with an average of 11.6 years. Both the median and the mode came in at an even ten years.

You could argue that the single response from someone who had been writing for 0 years proves that overnight success can happen, and you're right. It can happen. So can getting struck by lightning.

First Novel Survey Results (Thanks, Steven!)

• [Roy Trumbull]

  I think 10 years is a good number. Having done my share of long and short form writing, it takes that long to develop a style and a flow worth reading. I always look at successful writers for clues. I’ve read a lot of Edna Ferber, Jack London, John Steinbeck, Mark Twain, Issac Asimov, Oscar Wilde, Graham Greene, Evelyn Waugh, H.G. Wells, and others. The question is always how do they get you to turn to the next page? They waste very few words for one thing.

• [Felix Mitchell]

  @ Xopher; it took him less than a full year to write the novel.

  Interesting data. 246 authors from a fwe genres is not a great data set; Steven’s thoroughness seems unwarranted in the face of his unreliable sample.

  • [Steve_Saus]

    @Felix: Thanks for the compliment about my thoroughness!

    You’re right, it’s not the best data set out there. In fact, there’s quite a few methodological problems, which both Jim & I discuss.

    That said, between his analysis and mine, I think we’ve compiled enough data to fulfill the original goal: Showing there is no hard or fast rule (at least among genre fiction, where we both write) that one must get an agent or write short stories before trying to publish a novel – or where to try to sell it. I think my analysis – even with the dataset at hand – also shows that any answer given for one genre, at one point of time, may not hold for another genre… or even that SAME genre a few years down the line.

    Since these are perennial questions at conventions, answering these with more than a personal opinion was Jim’s (and my) goal, and we achieved that pretty well.

    I’d *love* for a publishing house (or any of the professional writing organizations) to commission a repeat of the study. [insert offer of my services over the summer for a modest fee here.] Some of the most interesting questions had to be tossed out, and I’d love to see a more comprehensive dataset as well.

  • [Xopher]

    Less than a full year to write the novel AND sell it? It can take more than a year for publishers to get back to you, even with a yes.

    • [Steve_Saus]

      @Xopher – There were a few outliers in the responses both ways. You’re absolutely correct that it normally takes more than a year.

      There’s also a possibility that with that answer the respondent interpreted it as “writing professionally”. For example, I’ve been writing for over fifteen years for my own amusement; I’ve only been seriously trying (and sometimes succeeding) in getting published for just under three years. We have no way of knowing which is correct – it’s a drawback of doing survey research.

• [Anonymous]

  The spike is totally because people don’t know the exact number and said 10, 15, 20, or 25 a lot.

  • [Anonymous]

    I don’t think people guessed how long they’d been writing. People KNOW how long they’ve been wriitng, and rewriting, and getting rejections. Believe me.

• [Anonymous]

  In answer to why there is a spike every 5 years starting at 11 I would guess that most people answering this don’t recall exactly how long ago it was, not perfectly, so they are probably rounding off their response.

• [Anonymous]

  Any idea why there might be a spike every 5 years (@ 11, 16, 21, 26, 31)?

  • [stumo]

    Any idea why there might be a spike every 5 years (@ 11, 16, 21, 26, 31)?

    I suspect it’s actually at 10, 15, 20, 25… – because people who don’t remember exactly will estimate to a round number

• [Xopher]

  Wait, wouldn’t that mean they sold the novel before writing it? I think they’re lying. Just a guess.

  • [Anonymous]

    Once you’re a professionally published author, you do sell your novels before writing them (you sell the proposal, then write the novel). It’s uncommon for first time authors to do it that way, but not unheard-of.