Smarter algorithms ticket to a fast train

What makes European trains run on time?

No, not fascism. It's ARRIVAL—Algorithms for Robust and online Railway optimization: Improving the Validity and reliAbility of Large scale systems. Besides being the world's most tortured acronym, ARRIVAL is a new EU program aimed at using technology to manage transportation systems more efficiently. The idea is to create timetables that allow more trains to move faster through existing infrastructure, with fewer delays. Succeed at that, and you make mass transit‐an important element in sustainable development—more appealing to potential riders.

"The algorithms have not only cut waiting time between trains from four minutes to two on the Berlin underground network, but have also been used to draw up a new timetable for the Dutch national railway system, which handles 5,500 trains per day. In Switzerland, the system has been used to optimise a schedule so that additional trains may operate on high-risk sections of track, while trials at the Italian stations of Palermo and Genoa have reduced delays by 25%. "

A couple minutes might not seem like much, but averaged over thousands of trains, it can mean a very big difference. If you go further and multiply those minutes that would otherwise have been wasted by the number of passengers on those trains, you get thousands and thousands of hours that aren't being lost by people waiting around at stations.

There's actually a lot of similar work—based both on new, smarter timetables and on policy changes that allow for faster communication and better-protected right-of-ways—going on in the American Midwest. This approach is especially important here, because, without it, we're kind of stuck in a catch-22, where nobody wants to spend money on new infrastructure for an inter-city train system that sucks—but the system is likely to continue to suck without some kind of serious improvement.

Planet Green: Meet the Algorithm that Cut Delays in Half for German Trains

Image courtesy Flickr user jpmueller99, via cc

Maggie Koerth-Baker is the science editor at BoingBoing.net. She writes a monthly column for The New York Times Magazine and is the author of Before the Lights Go Out, a book about electricity, infrastructure, and the future of energy. You can find Maggie on Twitter and Facebook.

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adamnvillani

I take the Metro Red Line in Los Angeles every day, and it’s within a minute of arriving on schedule probably about 90 to 95% of the time. When I lived in a different area without a train, I would take Metro’s buses. Run by the same agency, arrival was a complete crapshoot. Eventually I stopped looking at the schedules and just showed up whenever I was ready.

But of course, buses run in mixed-flow traffic and are subject to all sorts of delays. The only things that should interfere with the subway’s operation are mechanical problems or police activity, and thankfully those are pretty rare. For those of you who live in cities where the subways don’t run on time, what exactly is holding them up?
- Symbiote
  
  Things that can hold up a subway train:
  1. Passengers holding the doors
  2. Too many passengers trying to get on/off
  3. Suicide
  4. Defects with the train
  5. Defects with the track
  6. Defects with the signalling
  7. Staff problems (driver late to his shift etc)
  8. loads more?
  
  The problem of 1 & 2 will be reduced if there’s a frequent service. If a lot of people suddenly appear at a station round here you might hear an announcement like “this train will now leave, stand back, the next train will arrive in one minute”. Usually that’s outside peak times (e.g. after a concert finishes), since regular commuters know waiting isn’t a big deal.
  
  4, 5 and 6 need investment. A friend of mine works as an emergency engineer in central London. He doesn’t seem to do much for most of the day, but if there’s a problem with a train or track he’s expected to go to it and fix it as quickly as possible.
  
  7 also costs money (having spare drivers ready to cover for a driver that doesn’t show up, etc).
  - adamnvillani
    
    Thanks… I guess #1 and #2 can be built into the schedules if you know where the busiest stops are, but, like you said, I suppose things could be held up unexpectedly for special events.
    
    For whatever reason in L.A. #3 seems to be a much bigger problem on the light rail lines than the subway, though it’s worth mentioning that the Metrolink (commuter rail) crash in Glendale was caused by a man who parked his gasoline-soaked SUV on the tracks in what he claimed was an aborted suicide attempt. The jury rejected that, however, and convicted him of 11 counts of 1st-degree murder.
    
    #4 – #7 may be a function of funding and the age of the system. The subway in L.A. opened in 1993. Mechanical problems with the trains are rare, but oh man, some of the escalators seem to be out a quarter of the time.
    - masamunecyrus
      
      “#4 – #7 may be a function of funding and the age of the system.”
      
      Once again, many stations in Japan were made 50 years ago. They just retrofit them with modern things like elevators, computer ticketing, and they’re functioning like a typical super-efficient Japanese train station.
TheAntipodean

The train service in Berlin was AMAZING. Best metro I have ever had the pleasure to use.
Milarepa

‘No, it’s not fascism?’ What the …? Why would you write that?
- WizarDru
  
  Seriously? You don’t get the reference?
  
  It was written of Mussolini (you know, the FATHER of FASCISM) that he “may have done many brutal and tyrannical things; he may have destroyed human freedom in Italy; he may have murdered and tortured citizens whose only crime was to oppose Mussolini; but ‘one had to admit’ one thing about the Dictator: he ‘made the trains run on time.’”
Xenu

Can we PLEASE have this in SF for the Muni Metro? Or anything really, even just a guy standing there with a megaphone yelling at the train operator would be better than what we have now (i.e. nothing.)
- Antinous / Moderator
  
  Muni has an algorithm: for every ten J, K, L or M cars, there will be one N.
taj1f

Alas, not enough folks get their share of the graft if anything works “too well” in the U.S. of A., more’s the woe.
13enster

Dude, SEPTA trains are the polar opposite of fast and reliable. I suggest using a different picture for this bit!
- FredicvsMaximvs
  
  Surely you’re not speaking of the
  
  Sorriest
  Excuse for
  Public
  Transportation in
  America
  
  ? :-D
Anonymous

(Implying this could help SEPTA’s delays)
WizarDru

SEPTA is, as previously noted, the exact OPPOSITE of the European ideal. Despite decades of experience, train delays are routine as are the root causes.

On Monday, my outbound train was delayed because they couldn’t find a conductor. DURING RUSH HOUR. Things are made worse by the fact that, along the R5 route, Septa and AMTRAK share the same rails (and by share, I mean AMTRAK lets SEPTA use their tracks). Delays are commonplace and inefficiency is rampant and has been for years.
seyo

“Succeed at that, and you make mass transitâ€”an important element in sustainable developmentâ€”more appealing to potential riders.”

Spoken from a truly American perspective. The fact is that in Europe, people have been happily riding trains for decades. thanks to strong government subsidies, unionized workforces, heavy taxes on cars and gasoline, they have had an efficient, comfortable, and punctual rail system, long before this algorithm. I suggest you go to France and ride the TGV from Marseilles up to London, under the goddam Channel. Then you’ll realize how much we really suck over here in the good old US of A.
- Maggie Koerth-Baker
  
  I’ve been to France. They have a lovely train system.
  
  I don’t think it’s something intrinsically magical about the French, though. Adopting better algorithms WOULD make a difference in how U.S. trains run. And faster, more reliable trains WOULD make trains more appealing to Americans.
  
  I’m not really sure what your point here is.
  - seyo
    
    My point here is that algorithms isn’t why Amtrak sucks. Amtrak sucks because our culture and political system favors cars, and trains are seen as commie shit for the proles. No algorithm will make my train from Boston to NYC, or NYC to DC get there faster or on time. Tax dollars will.
- Anonymous
  
  “Spoken from a truly American perspective. The fact is that in Europe, people have been happily riding trains for decades. thanks to strong government subsidies, unionized workforces, heavy taxes on cars and gasoline, they have had an efficient, comfortable, and punctual rail system, long before this algorithm.”
  
  The US rail system is heavily geared toward freight, and carries a lot of it well, while Europe is much more passenger-train oriented. Amtrak trains seem to have to wait for freights. I can’t imagine the equivalent happening in Europe. but I’m pretty sure US rail freight volume is vastly higher than European freight volume. Better scheduling algorithms might allow the US to improve passenger service without messing up freight, the thing it already does well.
Willie McBride

trials at the Italian stations of Palermo and Genoa have reduced delays by 25%

Ah! The standard method to reduce delays in Italy is redefining what delay means. IIRC a few years ago a train wasn’t officially “delayed” unless it arrived more than 15 minutes after the expected time, I think now it’s 60 minutes or so…
sergeirichard

That’s not so much an acronym as a bunch of letters thrown in the general direction of the thing you mean.
Nadreck

This stuff is way too advanced for Canada. We’re the only country on the face of the earth that officially (although it seems from an above post that this happens unofficially in the States) give freight trains priority over passenger trains. Not much you can do to improve service until you actually care about the service.
I remember, one year sometime in the 90s, taking the train from Toronto to Ottawa a lot. That year VIA rail had a promotion whereby they’d give you a free ticket equal to your current one if your train was more than 3 hours late. (They also paid for you taxi ride when you pulled into Union station at 3 am after all of the rest of the mass transit had shut down.) Later in the year, due to having to hand out so many tickets, they upped it to 5 hours late. In any case I only ever paid for one trip that whole year and it was always due to some miles long freight train.
JessK

Why didn’t they leave it at “ARR?” I would’ve accepted “ARR.” As long as there was an exclamation point. ARR!
masamunecyrus

Too often, inventions in Asia go completely ignored outside of Asia. Take, for instance, hand dryers, where many in the west think that Dyson invented the “air blade” hand dryer.

Now, I suppose I am jumping to conclusions assuming that Japan has some kind of advanced timing algorithms that they’ve developed for their train system. But the fact is that trains are not late in Japan. If they are delayed at all, it’s probably due to a suicide in the tracks or adverse weather.

The average lateness of the bullet train is less than 12 seconds, and they’re coordinating that over hundreds of miles and tens of stops. Their standard, commuter trains are similarly timely.

If Europe wants to know how to run a train system, just go ask Japan Rail. I’m sure they’d be happy to export some technology.
ncm

Fascism never made the trains run on time. Fascism simply made it dangerous to _complain_ about the trains not running on time. There were fewer complaints, but it’s not the same thing.
the1arcadia

I would love to see more rail in America- maybe it’ll happen, with Warren Buffett having bought up a fair amount of lines as his greatest investment ever.

Government subsidies? Public demand?

I have had the pleasure of riding Amtrak short and long distances, and if I could ride it more, I would. I remember going to the impeccably clean station with two 70 pound suitcases, getting my ticket within 5 minutes, and walking right onto the train. Total time from entering station to choosing my own seat on the nearly empty train? 15 minutes. And that was two years ago.

One of my friends mentioned that the federal govt gives $1 billion a year to Amtrak as well – interesting, although a possibly misguided federal distribution.

So, congrats on Europe for being tech-savvy for reducing train times for moving to a more sustainable lifestyle. I applaud you. Now if only we could do that…
John Mark Ockerbloom

I only wish that more American transit systems had the problem of track congestion in the first place.

In lots of US transit systems there aren’t nearly enough trains running to cause routine track congestion. Our local SEPTA line, for instance, now has 60 to 90 minutes between trains for most of the non-peak hours. The only time you get train congestion usually, is downtown when a delayed or disabled train or malfunctioning control makes other trains pile up behind it.

Track congestion *does* tend to happen in systems shared with other traffic, though. One reason many Amtrak long-distance trains are routinely delayed for hours is that the lines they run on are already scheduled to capacity by freight trains. So even though Amtrak is supposed to be given priority, any of the freight trains going off schedule can end up cascading delays through the system, especially for trains like Amtrak that are supposed to go faster than the average freight line. (I recall reading one study of a proposal to send a second daily Amtrak train through Washington state– there’s only one per day in each direction now– which concluded that it would have to take a different route because the main line already had no more capacity with all the freights scheduled.)