Radiation data near Fukushima show little cause for concern (so far)

NPR reporters spent some time looking at the radiation level readings near the crisis-stricken Fukushima nuclear plant in Japan.

Their determination? "The first radiation measurements from within a 37-mile radius of the disabled Fukushima Dai-ichi power plant do not reveal any immediate health threat - and perhaps not even any health problems measurable decades from now, if levels stay where they are."

But it's all about the "if." The greatest concern right now is that the situation is not yet stable; if that doesn't change, the possibility of a catastrophic radiation leak exists. (Image: NPR)

Boing Boing editor/partner and tech culture journalist Xeni Jardin hosts and produces Boing Boing's in-flight TV channel on Virgin America airlines (#10 on the dial), and writes about living with breast cancer. Diagnosed in 2011. @xeni on Twitter. email: xeni@boingboing.net.

MORE: International • Japan • News

More at Boing Boing

Eurovision 2013: An American in London

The technology that links taxonomy and Star Trek

Cowicide

Hmmm… and wouldn’t MEXT be the ones responsible for not better safeguarding the Japanese people? Just kind of seems like it would be in their best interest to downplay the effects of this disaster on their watch. And who funds these people?

Is there any other sources for radiation measurements, seriously? Or can we at least vet out this MEXT source that is forming the basis for all these assessments in the NPR article?

I’m down for feel-good news as much as anyone. But, I’d feel a helluva lot better about it if there was more adherence to journalistic standards in this feel-good news here.
Ian

When JR West had a train accident, the government criticised their safety policies first and then went after them in every area that they’d previously trusted them to do the right thing, checking up on their taxes and everything else and crowing about every problem they found.

JAL had a similar issue (with landing gear, if memory serves), and a similar response.

Livedoor, a large (at the time) website, practiced close-to-the-wall financial shenanigans to bump up their share price, and the owner got screwed to the wall by the government. My take of the situation was that Livedoor had done something that wasn’t actually against the law at the time, but wasn’t desperately ethical; there were also issues of whether the CEO even knew what was going on, versus having overly enthusiastic employees who were ‘just trying to help’. He was eventually convicted of securities fraud. (Japanese courts have something like a 90% conviction rate, note. Don’t get arrested in Japan.)

The overall impression I get is that companies are given a certain amount of trust by regulators; some less scrupulous ones use this trust to take shortcuts; and if they’re caught, that trust is promptly revoked, across the board.

This is turning out notably different, in that the company is currently receiving government support rather than vilification. I haven’t yet decided if that’s because they’re being incredibly good at their jobs or because the government can’t be seen to be lax in nuclear regulation.
- Cowicide
  
  This is reminding me more and more of the BP oil spill where responsibility is attempted to be swept under the rug (or ocean) right before our very eyes.
  - Ian
    
    I believe that trying to judge responsibility in the thick of it is going to be futile. However, if the pattern holds up, I’d expect TEPCO to be vilified after the event if they deserve it, and possibly also if they don’t – pay attention to whether the things they’re accused of are, in fact, something to do with this accident or something completely unrelated to it (problems at other plants, unrelated safety practices, tax evasion, etc.).
    
    Also, I guarantee that, after the event, the head of TEPCO will resign with abject apologies and a lot of very deep bowing. It doesn’t mean he’s personally the cause of what happened, it means that he’s the head of the company and must leave and (hopefully) take the disgrace with him. And if it also happens that he’s the best suited leader to clean up the mess that the disaster leaves, well, that’s unfortunate.
a_user

On NHC live:

footage from inside one the crash tenders spraying water into reactor 3 spent fuel pool on Friday.
a_user

On NHK live

TEPOC has managed to restart the pump at reactor 6, pump intact also at reactor 5.
a_user

from NHK live:

fire tender action at reactor 3

I’ll add more as I can grab them.
ADavies

Actually, the fact that long lasting contamination is now being detected is a pretty huge cause for concern in my book. As is the fact that so much rides on the wind keeping to the prevailing pattern.

The media is focusing on the exciting stuff – explosions and the heroic “Fukushima 50″ and radiation scares in wherever. The longer term consequences aren’t getting much play.

There’s also the very real risk that we’re not getting all the information.

I think this VOA story, filed by a reporter in Fukushima, nicely addresses the need to report on something that is a genuine disaster without starting an unnecessary panic…
http://www.voanews.com/english/news/Confusion-anxiety-abound-near-Fukushima-118285529.html
- a_user
  
  The contamination consists of iodine and caesium.
  
  http://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/tsunamiupdate01.html
  
  TBH I read this as it’s good they’re checking.
Anonymous

Ian, while conviction rates appear high, it is in part due to the types of cases that actually get filed as crimes and or investigated.

A disturbingly high number of criminals wont face prosecution because their cases were deemed too challenging. In other words, conviction rates are falsely high because many tough cases aren’t taken on because it would lower conviction rates–makes the stats look bad and shameful.

An investigation of how fraud and abuse in Sumo wrestling in Japan was handled by legal authorities revealed as much, too.
- Ian
  
  Interesting, I hadn’t heard that side of it.
  
  Many of the stories I’ve read paint the picture that if a nice, responsible policeman decided to arrest you, then either you’re guilty of the crime or the judge is accusing the policeman of not doing their job properly (which you must never do).
  
  Of course, that’s not in conflict with what you say, just another side of it (though I’m sure the truth is in fact weirder than either of us imagine). In the meantime I think I’ll stick to not getting arrested. ;)
a_user

It’s a generator they’ve restarted not the pump at reactor 6 – apologies for the inaccuracy.

Courtesy of NHK live – more shots from the fire tender on Friday
Cowicide

TO ALL

I really don’t take any pleasure in this and I desperately wish I had been wrong and you’d all still be laughing at me at this point, but there’s a new development you should all be aware of.

It turns out I was right and the U.S. military is now ALSO questioning these Japanese readings from MEXT, etc.

Please read:

U.S. military detects more radiation

U.S. officials have told NBC News that they’re seeing a disparity between Japanese radiation readings and the readings they’ve been getting from military monitors.

Concerns about the release of radiation from Japan’s stricken nuclear plants at the Fukushima Dai-ichi complex began with data collection on the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan. On Monday, the U.S. Seventh Fleet relocated its ships and aircraft out of the downwind direction after crew members returning to the carrier were found to have picked up low levels of radioactive contamination. The personnel were scrubbed down with soap and water, then declared contamination-free.

Since then, the data on radiation releases suggest a range of outcomes, going all the way up to “dire,” the officials said.

Now please, lay off me and my skepticism. I’ve researched shit like this for many years and when my alarm bells are going off like this on sources, I have a damn good track record of smoking out bad sources. Now please join me in the quest for the truth here. It might actually save some lives.
- a_user
  
  Take a step back and look at what you’re posting.
  
  Secondly that article recycles the story of the helicopters that flew through the plume from the hydrogen explosion at reactor 1, names no sources and gives no data that can be checked. This means not even the journalist believes the story enough to make it checkable.
  
  Who are you going to save with this lack of information?
  
  And what purpose would such a conspiracy serve?
  
  On a lighter note, have you ever noticed the characters in disaster movies that freak out screaming “OMFG We’re all going to DIEEEEE!1!!!!” either get slapped or die horribly just after?
  - Cowicide
    
    Take a step back and look at what you’re posting.
    
    Did that. Maybe you should too.
    
    Secondly that article recycles the story of the helicopters that flew through the plume from the hydrogen explosion at reactor 1
    
    Why is that relevant? They were putting it into context and reported that accurately as well, by the way.
    
    names no sources and gives no data that can be checked. This means not even the journalist believes the story enough to make it checkable.
    
    That may be what you want to believe, but beyond your conspiracy theory what they specifically say is, “They spoke with NBC on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the findings publicly.”
    
    Who are you going to save with this lack of information?
    
    Who are you going to save if you’re wrong, my friend?
    
    And what purpose would such a conspiracy serve?
    
    Maybe you should ask yourself that question in regards to your attack on the NBC reporter up there?
    
    And, maybe you should read my posts more carefully before you ask such questions or you’ll start to seem a little redundant?
    
    Also, you should look at the track record where the Japanese officials have already been caught fudging the truth. Ask yourself why they’ve done that before and then that might teach you much about why they may be doing it now.
    
    On a lighter note, have you ever noticed the characters in disaster movies that freak out screaming “OMFG We’re all going to DIEEEEE!1!!!!” either get slapped or die horribly just after?
    
    Yep and I’ve also noticed people in fear will act irrationally as you have. I hope you get a hold of yourself and maybe realize that there’s a good chance the MEXT have lied to you. The U.S. Military have little or no incentive to lie about their readings since the U.S. wasn’t responsible for maintaining the safety of the plants like MEXT was. The NBC reporter has a reputation to uphold and would gain nothing by perpetrating a hoax or conspiracy. Actually, with the gravity of the situation, it would very likely end the reporters career.
    
    While I’d like to irrationally point the finger at the least likely dishonest candidate in this horrible scenario, it’s not going to change what’s going on here. Please, calm down and realize I’m just trying to help get to the truth.
    
    Once again, I wish you luck and safety.
- oheso
  
  (Making sure the dead horse’s skin won’t be suitable for any type of apparel by the time I’m through flogging it.)
  
  It turns out I was right and the U.S. military is now ALSO questioning these Japanese readings from MEXT, etc.
  
  Unnamed US officials, from the story, commenting on US military readings. No indication that the officials are from the military, the Department of State, Department of Agriculture (a few of those in Japan as well), or what.
  
  Headline says “more radiation”, but the body of the story only says “a disparity”. No figures given.
  
  data on radiation releases suggest a range of outcomes
  
  No one, even those unwilling to give their sources, is saying the situation is dire. Someone is saying it could become dire. Which is true. And the moon could fall on my head tomorrow. I’m not sure the chances of those two events are comparable, but I’m not sweating either until someone shows me some facts.
  - Cowicide
    
    No one, even those unwilling to give their sources, is saying the situation is dire.
    
    You might want to reread the article:
    
    Since then, the data on radiation releases suggest a range of outcomes, going all the way up to “dire,” the officials said.
    
    And, maybe get caught up on some new developments (be sure to check the UPDATED parts too):
    
    http://www.boingboing.net/2011/03/19/wsj-tepco-initially.html
    
    Enjoy.
taj

Ian, Japan has few lawyers. Few judges. Prosecutors only prosecute if they are sure of a conviction. And even then, sometimes they lose. Also, the system has changed dramatically in the last couple years. (Need for speed, lay judges, etc.)
- Ian
  
  Fair enough.
  
  I’m more interested if someone’s got counterexamples to the main points of that post than the throwaway comment where I turned out to be short of facts. Anyone care to dive in?
  - oheso
    
    Not counterexamples. I’d go even further. It’s not that their immunity is revoked across the board so much as someone saying, “Damnit, we must be able to get them for *something*! I want a head on a silver platter here!”
    
    The whole cycle of “voluntary regulation” through exposure of non-compliance to public vilification is nauseating. Wouldn’t everyone’s interests be served just by having the government actually enact regulations and then take measures to ensure that they’re enforced?
a_user

Cowicide, I believe, is just living the reaction to Three Mile Island, lots of lying there both in the run up to building plants in the US and after. Maybe that’s why the foreign media is so hysterical.

The IAEA, not Japanese, and not TEPCO affiliated but UN affiliated, is also monitoring radiation levels.

Radiation levels in major Japanese cities have not changed significantly since yesterday and remain below those which are dangerous to human health.

http://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/tsunamiupdate01.html

The IAEA’s offical position is that you can trust Japanese government information, but that they(J gov) need to get more information out.

Also can you point me to the part of the MEXT site that says they are just collating data from other sources.

All I could find was

The table was made by MEXT, based on the reports from prefectures.

A prefecture corresponds is the local authority and have the responsibility for the monitoring post in their area or prefecture in the event of a disaster, on other words they are taking data from people in the field. The “based on” part comes from dealing with a non native English speaker translating from Japanese. They could mean anything from “pooled from”, “compiled from” both suggesting taking the data and grouping it to “rounded up to the nearest decimal” or “redacted” or even “censored”. Given the IAEA hasn’t published its own data since Saturday (scroll down the page I linked to), when MEXT started displaying theirs, I read that as anything up to “redacted”.
- oheso
  
  Also can you point me to the part of the MEXT site that says they are just collating data from other sources.
  
  You’ve answered your own question, and more thoroughly than I could have.
  - a_user
    
    I was just checking that was stumbling block.
Poet

At least they were built with prevailing winds in mind.
taj

Ian, are you perhaps seeing “government” as one big blob of an entitiy? Who went after Livedoor? The FSA? Actually, I think it might have been media, then shareholders, then FSA, then the Ministry of Justice – but I’m not going to bother to look that all up and I don’t remember off the top of my head how that all went down.

Here, “the government” isn’t taking time out to point fingers. Yeah. Of course not. That would be reprehensible. The focus now must be on sorting shit out. Getting fuel, food, and supplies to the people who need it. Getting whatever is needed, into that mess of a power plant.

Blame and finger pointing should come after analysis, and that has to come after things have literally cooled down.
victorvodka

i won’t believe this happy talk until someone takes measurements to the east in a boat or the wind turns against the prevailing westerlies. i’m not surprised radiation is low upwind from the plant, no matter how bad the crisis is. what matters is downwind.
- oheso
  
  The wind has been all over the map the past few days. Granted, the prevailing wind blows out of the west.
taj

Xeni,

This would appear to be some good news, wouldn’t it? A bit of a relief, even? Temporary reprieve?
Why do you have to go and add the So Far’s and the “yeah, but there’s still a chance of catasrophe!!”.

Is that necessary? Couldn’t you just let us have something nice for a few hours?
a_user

WHO: No radiation risk outside evacuation zone

The World Health Organization has said radiation levels outside the evacuation zone in Japan are not harmful for human health.

NHK live

Oh look a secondary source confirms this.
- Cowicide
  
  Oh look a secondary source confirms this.
  
  Oh look, there’s not much substance to your link….
  
  So it’s confirmed in your mind? Based on what sources and facts?
  
  All I see so far is:
  
  He said the amount of radiation being reported outside of the evacuation zone continued to be below the levels considered a public health risk.
  
  Amount of radiation reported by whom? For all we know they are basing this on the same, exact source as here.
  
  Please, enlighten me if you have better information. This is half-baked so far.
  - oheso
    
    Neither the story nor a cursory glance at the MEXT site reveals whether the measurements are all done by MEXT. But the “Japan quake radioactive material monitoring post MAP” includes several independent sources which are reporting in the same range of output as what the NPR is commenting on.
    
    http://maps.google.co.jp/maps/ms?hl=ja&ie=UTF8&brcurrent=3%2C0x34674e0fd77f192f%3A0xf54275d47c665244%2C0&msa=0&msid=208563616382231148377.00049e573a435697c55e5&ll=39.13006%2C140.229492&spn=17.158657%2C39.111328&z=5
    - Cowicide
      
      Neither the story nor a cursory glance at the MEXT site reveals whether the measurements are all done by MEXT.
      
      The story directly linked to MEXT for the collected data. Try the first link in the story, if I remember correctly.
      - oheso
        
        Flogging a dead horse here. I didn’t check with the site yesterday.
        
        The story directly linked to MEXT for the collected data. Try the first link in the story, if I remember correctly.
        
        The link is broken, but here’s a typical one from the MEXT site, for Shinjuku. Note at the bottom says that MEXT is merely compiling data from other sources.
  - a_user
    
    yes I have a vested interest in knowing, and less interest in hypothetical discussions on the subject tbh. If you took a little time to explore the NHK site I linked to you would see the news report showing the radiation levels in the surrounds.
    
    Or even just click on my name and follow the updates I’ve been posting since Friday.
    - Cowicide
      
      If you took a little time to explore the NHK site I linked to you would see the news report showing the radiation levels in the surrounds.
      
      A direct link would be great.
      - a_user
        
        https://encrypted.google.com/search?q=nhk+live
      - Cowicide
        
        Once AGAIN, a direct link to the sources you mentioned earlier would be fantastic. Otherwise, please don’t bother.
      - a_user
        
        Cowicide –
        
        I know you think you’re taking me to task but you just sound shrill. I repeat my question – who do you think you are helping?
        
        I’m in Japan, of course I’m sure of my facts, by which I mean I don’t have the luxury of a margin or error. I don’t have time to waste with head games designed to sell copy and I have been posting accordingly.
        
        Namie to the north of the Fukushima site has abnormal readings today, which has been on NHK since this morning. But it’s just boring, isn’t it when you have a name or a reading you can check on. Much better to drop hints and leave people’s imagination to join up the dots isn’t it. You can spin 4 or 5 articles out if it.
        
        Let me just close by linking to this post I made on 14th March from an NHK bulletin
        
        http://boingboing.net/2011/03/14/japanese-nuclear-pla-1.html#comment-1053734
        
        this story was picked up by NYT about an hour later.
      - Cowicide
        
        I know you think you’re taking me to task but you just sound shrill. I repeat my question – who do you think you are helping? I’m in Japan, of course I’m sure of my facts, by which I mean I don’t have the luxury of a margin or error. I don’t have time to waste with head games designed to sell copy and I have been posting accordingly.
        
        I stand by what I wrote here. You haven’t addressed what I said there and I repeat my questions there to you. Try to calm down and read slowly what I’m saying there and you might come to realize I’m not shrill and not “out to get you” in any way, shape or form.
        
        I’m sorry you think the journalist at NBC is playing “head games” with you designed to sell copy, but I have no reason to believe that for the reasons I described earlier and you are actually sounding pretty shrill at the moment.
        
        That said, I really do hope the article is wrong, but I have no reason to believe that NBC science editor Alan Boyle has anything to gain by risking his reputation and career by releasing this information via his military sources. Is that shrill enough for you?
        
        Once again, I wish you luck and safety and I hope you calm down and get more rational about this.
      - a_user
        
        I don’t think you are out to get me.
        
        I’m also calm.
        
        I am, however, deathly tired of hysterical media coverage, and oddly enough that’s a fairly commonly held feeling in the foreign community out here.
        
        I read the article you linked to and it was bog standard for a piece written by a foreign journo on this issue; low on facts, high on FUD.
        
        Anyone can cite anonymous sources, but if it was really such a scoop and considering the story was about data, why was there zero data?
      - Cowicide
        
        Sigh, this isn’t going anywhere. You still haven’t addressed any of my points here after I kindly addressed you point by point there.
        
        So at this point, we shall agree to disagree. And, in regards to your last post, I shall refer you again to here.
        
        And on a final note, I wish you luck, safety and clarity.
      - Cowicide
        
        I’m also calm.
        
        On a lighter note.
      - a_user
        
        lol
        
        I’ll raise you – stay calm
Hal

apologies if this has been covered on bb but I haven’t seen anything anywhere on the possible consequences of a Chernobyl type event so close to the Ocean?
The Chernobyl exclusion zone is only a 30km radius but in Fukushima that would include a large area of Ocean, how far might Ocean currents disperse radioactive material or would the really nasty stuff tend to stay put?
oheso

So, mods, sources of independent data not welcome?
- Antinous / Moderator
  
  http://boingboing.net/2011/03/10/no-url-shorteners-in.html
oheso

As I have learned from comparing these readings (Google is my friend, too), micro Grays/hour = micro Seiverts/hour. Some of the sources are in millis, and I found one from Kawasaki in nanos (which caused me a start until I realized that).

Make sure we’re comparing apples with apples here …
oheso

OK, Antinous, I missed the boat. Here you go:

http://maps.google.co.jp/maps/ms?hl=ja&ie=UTF8&brcurrent=3%2C0x34674e0fd77f192f%3A0xf54275d47c665244%2C0&msa=0&msid=208563616382231148377.00049e573a435697c55e5&ll=39.13006%2C140.229492&spn=17.158657%2C39.111328&z=5
- Cowicide
  
  Thanks oheso, I tried google translate to no avail. Who are the sources for those readings? Are the sources revealed in the Japanese writing there? Without sources, I feel like we’re back to here again especially after this development.
  - oheso
    
    (Continuing to flog dead horse.)
    
    Who are the sources for those readings? Are the sources revealed in the Japanese writing there?
    
    Google translate is your friend. In many cases, the sources are noted in English in the bubbles on the map. (It’s likely some of these are the reporting agency rather than the ultimate source — that information is sometimes available at the linked site, and sometimes it’s just unclear.)
    
    Just by clicking a few of the icons and reading the bubbles, I was able to come up with (in English), for example, “Saitama pref. wako city / RIKEN; Inst. of Physical and Chemical Research”. The linked data is here. (No mention there if the university receives funding from MEXT, or how much.) There are others ranging from some dude with his dosimeter on up to governmental agencies.
    
    There is sufficient information there in English (or with the help of Google translate) to indicate that some independent readings, at least, exist, and that they are not grossly out of line with the official findings.
a_user

@cowcide oh and btw the Japanese are getting their data from TEPCO and IAEA if you want to check those out too.
oheso

Antinous, I’ve read down the comments of your link. Apologies now for the extra work involved for you.
Anonymous

im ready to panic at a moments notice

the suspense will probably kill me first though.
Cowicide

How reliable is the the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology? Or dare I ask such a question?

Their source was vetted out by NPR, I assume? And, if so, where can I find this information?
- a_user
  
  They are the government department responsible for the Science in Japan – which covers Atomic physics and attendant issues.
WMC

Experts: The moon isn’t going to kill us.

Boing Boing: (so far)
- a_user
  
  NYT: Moon completely dry in meltdown Chernobyl says US insider with contacts in the moon !!!!1111!!!!