Study: 42 percent of Americans will be obese by 2030

About a third of adults in the United States today are obese. By 2030, 42 percent will be, and about a quarter of that group will be severely obese, according to a forecast released this week at the “Weight of the Nation” conference in Washington, DC. (via Mia Farrow)


  1. Easy to fix, in 2020 they’ll just change the definition so fewer people are classified as obese.

    People who can still walk unassisted will be referred to as “chubby”. Only those trapped in their own house will be “obese”.

    People who can actually jog a mile will be branded as “rail thin waifs who will probably die any second now due to starvation.”

    1.  I’m not sure what you mean. Is the concept of “obesity” junk science? Is the population not trending to obesity?

      1. “Cynthia L. Ogden, an epidemiologist at the CDC, told the conference that, in general, obesity rates changed little in the 1960s and 1970s, rose steeply in the 1980s and 1990s, and have been leveling off in the past decade.”

        Not only that, consider the nature of such projections themselves and some of the criteria. How many fast-food restaurants per Americans are they basing this on again? Are they assuming a straight-line growth there? Have they seen Burger King’s business results? Have they seen the sales results for non-diet sodas? Have they considered Mike Bloomberg could stage a coup and make potato chips illegal and introduce mandatory marathon training for kindergarten through fifth grade?

        And don’t even get me started on BMI! :)

      2. First off I believe it’s the fact that we read similar portents all the time that wind up not being anywhere near true. If you don’t belive me just look back though history and you’ll find all manner of “predictions” and most of them haven’t come true. You’d find it harder to prove that an over 10 year down the road prediction came true than it is to prove they didn’t.

        Reason being that most of these studies wind up using extreme figures to arrive at their outcome and never factor in random events. They know that by and large most people will never actually look at the reasons or logic that they used to arrive at that figure. People are content to just say, “oh doctor, scientist, business guru, witch doctor, John Doe said it would be that way so it must be true!!” Nobody ever bothers to check HOW they came up with their figures.

        Secondly, even if it is true, what are you gonna do about it?? Sure you can watch your own weight. Sure you could even get out there and promote healthy lifestyles and/or give people classes on how to live fit but that’s already happening. Nearly every restaraunt out there now has a “healthy” menu. You can find all sorts of health foods in stores these days. I’m pretty sure I could turn on the TV and find a health/exercise show on at nearly any time of day. Heck even the vending machine companies have begun to mark which foods are healthier in the machines.

        So, what more are you gonna do?? Oh wait, you could pass laws against obesity. Just what we need, more laws. These ones are going to tell me what I can and can’t eat. Or tell my grocery store what they can and can’t sell to me, even though I may well want it. They’ll tell butchers exactly how much fat to cut off the meats, even though when grilling those fats are important and cook off. If and when this day comes I think it might be time to consider just where freedom begins and ends.

    2.  Is it the science aspect that offends you? (The precision of the statistics, the data, etc) or the idea that there could be a lot of unhealthy people out there, potentially clogging hospitals or dying, or that government might react and make laws on behalf of them that offends you? Even with leveling off, that’s a lot of people.

  2.  I suspect increasing obesity is causing beauty standards to become thinner.

  3. What’s more disturbing to me is that the extreme size of “obese” is no longer adequate to describe the latest statistical category that’s gaining ground, “severely obese.”

  4. If I remember my diff eq’s, 2030 also happens to be the approximate year when the earth will reach it’s carrying capacity. Two legged pork?

  5. What I think is interesting is this is actually a somewhat happy story, because this projection isn’t as bad as they thought it would be.

  6. The gene growthmoans  that make ‘constricted’ live stock grow is obviously transferring to the US populous without reduction in the hormonal dissipation.  Hence, your fat but starving. 

  7.  It seems reasonable to sharply increase health insurance premiums for those obese people that have no medical cause for it. Do they do that for smokers? Life insurance must costs more for firefighters than schoolteachers. It seems only fair to distribute the cost proportionally to those who choose riskier lifestyles.

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