Comments on: ScienceBlogs on the acceleration of rising sea levels http://boingboing.net/2012/12/12/scienceblogs-on-the-accel.html Brain candy for Happy Mutants Wed, 19 Jun 2013 16:14:00 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.4.1 By: Bill Price http://boingboing.net/2012/12/12/scienceblogs-on-the-accel.html#comment-1605960 Bill Price Thu, 13 Dec 2012 15:17:00 +0000 http://boingboing.net/?p=200037#comment-1605960 So ,,,,, are there long term trends forced by Solar Cycles, or by Athropogenic CO2,,, or are CO2 trends forced by Solar Cycles? So ,,,,, are there long term trends forced by Solar Cycles, or by Athropogenic CO2,,, or are CO2 trends forced by Solar Cycles?

]]> By: ando bobando http://boingboing.net/2012/12/12/scienceblogs-on-the-accel.html#comment-1605895 ando bobando Thu, 13 Dec 2012 12:26:00 +0000 http://boingboing.net/?p=200037#comment-1605895 He split it directly down the middle, it's hardly cherry picked. And besides, I'm still arguing that it doesn't prove much, just not for the equally-as-simplified reason that the second author proclaims. He split it directly down the middle, it’s hardly cherry picked. And besides, I’m still arguing that it doesn’t prove much, just not for the equally-as-simplified reason that the second author proclaims.

]]> By: ujin http://boingboing.net/2012/12/12/scienceblogs-on-the-accel.html#comment-1605652 ujin Thu, 13 Dec 2012 00:29:00 +0000 http://boingboing.net/?p=200037#comment-1605652 When you "fit" a straight line to a data set you are doing a linear regression using a least squares calculation.  Not just drawing a line where you want it to be.  The least squares calculation helps determine the best fit straight line that minimized the sum of the squares of the delta of each data point off that line.  I know 0_o If you want to move the fit line you need to modify the data set.  This guy could very well have run a calculation to determine the best fit combination that would maximize the appearance of deceleration assuming decade long data sets.  Then again he could have taken the data he had and split it down the middle. Stats! When you “fit” a straight line to a data set you are doing a linear regression using a least squares calculation.  Not just drawing a line where you want it to be.  The least squares calculation helps determine the best fit straight line that minimized the sum of the squares of the delta of each data point off that line.  I know 0_o

If you want to move the fit line you need to modify the data set.  This guy could very well have run a calculation to determine the best fit combination that would maximize the appearance of deceleration assuming decade long data sets.  Then again he could have taken the data he had and split it down the middle.

Stats!

]]> By: Brainspore http://boingboing.net/2012/12/12/scienceblogs-on-the-accel.html#comment-1605440 Brainspore Wed, 12 Dec 2012 20:47:00 +0000 http://boingboing.net/?p=200037#comment-1605440 It's not a "different" data set, it's a cherry-picked <em>portion</em> of a large data set. It's like trying to show that crime is decreasing in your neighborhood by starting your graph on a day that had multiple homicides. It’s not a “different” data set, it’s a cherry-picked portion of a large data set. It’s like trying to show that crime is decreasing in your neighborhood by starting your graph on a day that had multiple homicides.

]]> By: ando bobando http://boingboing.net/2012/12/12/scienceblogs-on-the-accel.html#comment-1605359 ando bobando Wed, 12 Dec 2012 19:55:00 +0000 http://boingboing.net/?p=200037#comment-1605359 I'm confused. Of course if you fit straight lines to different data sets you will get different results. You can't prove that the rate of increase ISN'T declining by fitting a straight line to the entire set. What they really need to do is confirm whether the most recent drop can be deemed statistically significant when compared against the earlier data. I'm thinking something like a basic control chart would do the trick. I’m confused. Of course if you fit straight lines to different data sets you will get different results. You can’t prove that the rate of increase ISN’T declining by fitting a straight line to the entire set. What they really need to do is confirm whether the most recent drop can be deemed statistically significant when compared against the earlier data. I’m thinking something like a basic control chart would do the trick.

]]> By: awjt http://boingboing.net/2012/12/12/scienceblogs-on-the-accel.html#comment-1605344 awjt Wed, 12 Dec 2012 19:45:00 +0000 http://boingboing.net/?p=200037#comment-1605344 They didn't even screw up right.  The second correlation should have a y-intercept right where the first one left off, so it actually looks like a perfect deceleration.  Freakin' amateurs. They didn’t even screw up right.  The second correlation should have a y-intercept right where the first one left off, so it actually looks like a perfect deceleration.  Freakin’ amateurs.

]]> By: jimmoffet http://boingboing.net/2012/12/12/scienceblogs-on-the-accel.html#comment-1605335 jimmoffet Wed, 12 Dec 2012 19:35:00 +0000 http://boingboing.net/?p=200037#comment-1605335 Next year, you can release the 94-04 and 04-14 series and it will look like sea level rise is significantly accelerating decade over decade. At which point, both statements are true, that sea-level significantly decelerated in 03-13 compared to 93-03 and that sea-level rise significantly accelerated in 04-14 compared to 94-04. At which point the average person loses all faith in climate science. Unscrupulous indeed. Next year, you can release the 94-04 and 04-14 series and it will look like sea level rise is significantly accelerating decade over decade.

At which point, both statements are true, that sea-level significantly decelerated in 03-13 compared to 93-03 and that sea-level rise significantly accelerated in 04-14 compared to 94-04.

At which point the average person loses all faith in climate science.

Unscrupulous indeed.

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