Young brothers explain Bayes's theorem

These two young fellows are brothers from Palo Alto who've set out to produce a series of videos explaining the technical ideas in my novel Little Brother, and their first installment, explaining Bayes's Theorem, is a very promising start. I'm honored -- and delighted!

Technology behind "Little Brother" - Jamming with Bayes Rule

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  1. What this tells us is that the terrorists urgently need to go on a recruitment drive, to boost the number of genuine terrorists until their number as a percentage of the general population matches the accuracy of the terrorist identification test,. e.g. if 1% of the citizens become terrorists, then the positives have a 50% likelihood of being true. The government should also harass innocent citizens until they join the terrorist organisation, thus improving the accuracy of their test. I think this is the strategy the TSA already follows...

  2. it's been working wonders in the middle east.

  3. sr105 says:

    This assumes that the test has some amount of chance associated. If not, the second test will return 10,001 terrorists and 0 non-terrorists.

  4. No thanks. I'd like maintain a sense of mystery about bananas.

    I mean, I'll look at them, but I'll just look at them.

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