Bernie Sanders won a surprise victory in the Michigan Democrat primary Tuesday, pulling two points clear of rival Hillary Clinton in a late-night nail-biter of a count.
With 99 percent of precincts reporting as of midnight, Sanders had captured 50 percent of the vote compared with 48.1 percent for Clinton.
Sanders upended public opinion polls and conventional wisdom in Michigan, where he packed college arenas and other venues in the past week while touting his message of change and promise of “political revolution.”
Five Thirty Eight had tracked a 20-point polling lead for Hillary Clinton, assigning her a 99% chance of winning the state according to their electoral prediction model. The media, including them, is shocked by the result, writes Harry Enten.
Clinton so heavily trounced Sanders in the evening's other major race, Mississipi, that she heads into Wednesday with more new delegates than Sanders. Read the rest
The question I am asking myself now is whether this means the polls are off in other Midwest states that are holding open primaries. I’m talking specifically about Illinois and Ohio, both of which vote next Tuesday. The FiveThirtyEight polling average in Illinois gives Clinton a 37 percentage point lead, while the average in Ohio gives her a 20 percentage point lead. If Michigan was just a fluke (which is possible), then tonight will be forgotten soon enough. If, however, pollsters are missing something more fundamental about the electorate, then the Ohio and Illinois primaries could be a lot closer than expected.
Either way, this result will send a shock wave through the press.
One recent poll's dead heat was confirmed by another this morning, placing Bernie Sanders only one point behind Democrat rival Hillary Clinton in the run-up to the Nevada caucus.
The Observer reports that Hillary was way ahead until very recently and that it looks more likely Sanders will score an upset.
One of the most interesting questions that will be answered in the coming weeks, beginning with the Nevada caucus and South Carolina primary, will be the number of young black and Hispanic voters who turn to Mr. Sanders in the same way most young white voters have supported him in Iowa and New Hampshire. My guess is this number will be larger than most insider establishment pundits expect.
Third, while Mr. Sanders has campaigned throughout Nevada for his positive agenda to create a political revolution that will make the American economy less rigged and more fair, Ms. Clinton has become a largely negative candidate with nonstop 24/7 attacks against Mr. Sanders that harden the low favorability and high distrust ratings plaguing her candidacy.
A typical "practical Hillary" messaging blunder: yesterday, Chelsea Clinton, campaigning for her mother, took aim at Sanders' penal reform plans. Whatever she meant, it was reported as her lecturing minorities why America must mass-incarcerate them. An unfair press, or a tin ear on her own base? Read the rest
As she requested before her death, Elaine Fydrych of Gloucester Township, New Jersey had the following line included in her obituary: “In lieu of flowers, please do not vote for Hillary Clinton." Read the rest
Hurry, hurry, this is your chance to own the Toshiba Satellite Pro that President Bill Clinton used to email John Glenn in space on November 6, 1998. Apparently, the laptop belonged to a member of Clinton's medical staff who helped the president send the email to orbit. The laptop is listed at $125,000. Wonder how much RAM is in it. "Bill Clinton computer -Presidential email on it, to John Glenn in space!" Read the rest