Trump's chances of winning sink to 8% amid Republican fears Clinton may take Texas


The New York Times' presidential forecast has millionaire Republican Donald Trump at his lowest ebb of the campaign, with only an 8 percent chance of winning the Nov. 8 general election.

A victory by Mr. Trump remains possible: Mrs. Clinton’s chance of losing is about the same as the probability that an N.F.L. kicker misses a 31-yard field goal.

The analysis corresponds closely with that of FiveThirtyEight, though it gives Trump a little more space with a 12 percent chance (as of Wednesday Oct. 19)

The situation is so dire, with only three weeks to go, that polls are finding the candidates within the margin of in Texas, a Republican stronghold where a Clinton victory would represent a spectacular obliteration of the party's ticket. seems utterly unlikely that Clinton could actually win Texas. Though the state's large Latino population, combined with where Trump has led the GOP with his rhetoric about Mexicans and policy on immigration, could soon make winning Texas a real possibility for Democrats.

There are other reliable Republican states where the Clinton campaign is investing more seriously, which is a sign of where the race stands. Clinton is positioned to win the White House if she gets just the battleground states that are already leaning to the Democrats. Her campaign says it's putting the "lion's share" of resources in traditional battleground states like Ohio and North Carolina, which remain toss-ups. But they also have the luxury of being able to invest in some states that traditionally go to Republicans.

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Ecuadoran Embassy confirms it changed its wifi password to lock out Assange


The Ecuadoran Embassy in London has confirmed Wikileaks' accusation that it terminated Julian Assange's access to its wifi network because it disapproved of Assange and Wikileaks' "intervention in the affairs of other states" by publishing material pertaining to the impending US election. Read the rest

"It's Not OK." After Donald Trump and Billy Bush tape, celebrities share their sexual assault experiences

This video released today from the social media campaign “Humanity for Hilary” features Meryl Streep, Amy Schumer, Lena Dunham, Whoopi Goldberg, Maggie Gyllenhaal, and other women who share their own experience of surviving sexual assault. It's a powerful response to recent events surrounding the Republican nominee for president, Donald Trump.

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A Surreal Vic Berger Edit of Melania Trump's Charm Offensive with Anderson Cooper on CNN

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Here's Vic Berger’s hilarious and disturbing edit of Melania Trump’s interview with Anderson Cooper on the Trump tapes. Read the rest

Vogue Endorses Hillary Clinton for President of the United States


Vogue today endorsed Hillary Rodham Clinton as the first ever female president of the United States of America, and ran this gorgeous portrait of our future POTUS by photographer Annie Leibovitz for Vogue, in December 1993.

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Trump winning the robotweet war


When you conduct a poll of human beings and ask them who won each of the two presidential debates (the third is tomorrow) they mostly say Hillary Clinton. But millionaire Donald Trump overwhelmingly wins on web-based polls. Why? The fabled alt-right internet hordes crusading around the internet clicking the lot? Maybe. But his fandom is also winning the bot war, with automated robotweeting and online interaction efforts that far outstrip those of their adversaries.

Bots are social media accounts that automate interaction with other users, and political bots have been particularly active on public policy issues, political crises, and elections. We collected data on bot activity using the major hashtags related to the U.S. Presidential debate. In this brief analysis we find that (1) Twitter traffic on pro-Trump hashtags was roughly double that of the pro-Clinton hashtags, (2) about one third of the pro-Trump twitter traffic was driven by bots and highly automated accounts, compared to one fifth of the pro-Clinton twitter traffic, (3) the significant rise of Twitter traffic around debate time is mostly from real users who generate original tweets using the more neutral hashtags. In short, Twitter is much more actively pro-Trump than pro-Clinton and more of the pro-Trump twitter traffic is driven by bots, but a significant number of (human) users still use Twitter for relatively neutral political expression in critical moments. is the source of the non-peer-reviewed report, which is available to download.

A key point is that there's no evidence the campaigns are doing it. Read the rest

Howard Stern won't release Trump tapes


Despite his support for Trump opponent Hillary Clinton, radio shock jock will not release the recordings of old radio broadcasts he made with Trump in which Trump made offensive sexual remarks, because "it would be a betrayal" to encourage their use in political campaigning. Read the rest

Matt Taibbi on Trump's "fury and failure"


Matt Taibbi (previously), the best, angriest Rolling Stone writer today, turns in the definitive column on Trump's death-spiral as the mercurial millionaire realizes that he isn't going to win, and starts to lash out. Read the rest

Wikileaks: Assange's internet access was cut off by Ecuador


Following on their earlier statement that "Julian Assange's internet link has been intentionally severed by a state party," the Wikileaks organization has accused Ecuador of being that state party. Read the rest

Arizona Republic editor responds to death threats following Clinton endorsement

For the first time in more than 125 years, the Arizona Republic endorsed a Democrat: Hillary Clinton. Some of the paper's readers responded with death threats -- and worse. Editor Mi-Ai Parrish's response is as classy a civics lesson as you could ask for. Read the rest

Wikileaks: a "state party" has cut off Julian Assange's primary internet access


Late yesterday, the @wikileaks account tweeted "Julian Assange's internet link has been intentionally severed by a state party. We have activated the appropriate contingency plans." Read the rest

SNL's Trump/Clinton debate sketch makes Saturday Night great again


We laughed so hard, we woke up the neighbors -- if you need any further enticement, look no farther than this endorsement from the pencil-neck Hitler wannabe with a face from Wal-Mart himself: Read the rest

Billionaire tech investors back ballot initiative to purge homeless people from San Francisco


Sequoia Capital Chairman Michael Moritz and angel investor Ron Conway have donated to San Francisco's Proposition Q: if passed, "the city would give residents of tent encampments 24 hours’ notice to relocate to a shelter or accept a bus ticket out of town." Read the rest

Donald Trump performs Mahna Mahna


The Elfman score highlights the triggering, abuser body-language and pro-wrestler grimaces but Mahna Mahna deploys Jacob Two Two's law: "Monsters can't abide the laughter of children." Genius editing, too. Read the rest

Trump already caught in pointless lie over former Miss Utah's claim of unwanted kiss


Yesterday, Donald Trump denied forcing a kiss on Temple Taggart McDowell, who accused him of doing so when she was Miss Utah in 1997. Read the rest

Sassy Trump Responds To People Magazine Allegations


A blistering new “Sassy Trump” lipdub from Peter Serafinowicz.

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The astounding story of Iceland's constitution - and its government's failure


In 2012, more than two-thirds of Iceland's population ratified the most democratically crafted constitution in world history, written in public and drafted by a representative committee of 1,000 Icelanders; now in a stirring video in the leadup to the next national election, Icelanders are calling on one another to only vote for candidates who'll take action on the constitution the nation voted for. (Thanks, Larry!) Read the rest

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