On Crooked Timber, Ingrid Robeyns presents a tough moral calculus: if you can save 50% of a group of trapped miners with 100% certainty, knowing the remainder will die; or you can try to rescue all the miners, with a 50% chance that they'll all die, which would you choose (And then: what if they were babies, not miners?)
Case A: Rescuing the miners:
Imagine 100 miners who are stuck in a mine. They are divided in two groups. You can either rescue 50 (with certainty), but then the other 50 will be lost (this is strategy 1). Or you can try a different rescue strategy, which may potentially save all of them, but only at a 50% probability; there's another 50% chance that all will die (strategy 2). Which strategy would you choose?
Case B: Rescuing the babies:
Suppose 100 babies are stuck in a mega-crèche which is on fire. They are two floors with 50 babies on each floor. There are two rescuing strategies. Under strategy 1, you can rescue 50 babies for sure, but the other 50 will die. Alternatively you can try another strategy in which all 100 babies have a 50% chance of being rescued (strategy 2).
Which strategy do you choose, and why? And if you choose differently in case A and case B, then why so?
Rescuing the miners and the babies [Ingrid Robeyns/Crooked Timber]
(Image: Black, Chinese & White Laborers In A Gold Mine In South Africa, Ralph Repo, CC-BY; Icon: Jorge Galleguillos, Secretaria de Comunicaciones, CC-BY)