Tim Urban has a great, longform post up on the future of artificial intelligence. "As I dug into research on Artificial Intelligence, I could not believe what I was reading," he writes.
"It hit me pretty quickly that what's happening in the world of AI is not just an important topic, but by far THE most important topic for our future. So I wanted to learn as much as I could about it, and once I did that, I wanted to make sure I wrote a post that really explained this whole situation and why it matters so much."
From part one:
When we imagine the progress of the next 30 years, we look back to the progress of the previous 30 as an indicator of how much will likely happen. When we think about the extent to which the world will change in the 21st century, we just take the 20th century progress and add it to the year 2000. This was the same mistake our 1750 guy made when he got someone from 1500 and expected to blow his mind as much as his own was blown going the same distance ahead. It's most intuitive for us to think linearly, when we should be thinking exponentially. If someone is being more clever about it, they might predict the advances of the next 30 years not by looking at the previous 30 years, but by taking at the current rate of progress and judging based on that. They'd be more accurate, but still way off. In order to think about the future correctly, you need to imagine things moving at a much faster rate than they're moving now.
The AI Revolution: The Road to Superintelligence [Tim Urban]