Kevin Kelly argues that the core premises that underlie the belief that artificial intelligence will overtake human intelligence are "more akin to a religious belief — a myth" than a scientific theory.
Kelly says that without a working definition of "intelligence" or "general purpose intelligence," that any blithe predictions about computers that are "smarter than human" or that possess the "infinite capacity" for improvement are a foolish orthodoxy.
1. Artificial intelligence is already getting smarter than us, at an exponential rate.
2. We’ll make AIs into a general purpose intelligence, like our own.
3. We can make human intelligence in silicon.
4. Intelligence can be expanded without limit.
5. Once we have exploding superintelligence it can solve most of our problems.
In contradistinction to this orthodoxy, I find the following five heresies to have more evidence to support them.
1. Intelligence is not a single dimension, so “smarter than humans” is a meaningless concept.
2. Humans do not have general purpose minds, and neither will AIs.
3. Emulation of human thinking in other media will be constrained by cost.
4. Dimensions of intelligence are not infinite.
5. Intelligences are only one factor in progress.
The AI Cargo Cult [Kevin Kelly/Backchannel]
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