Biden holds double-digit lead in national poll

An eagerly-awaited national poll by Monmouth University puts Joe Biden 10 points ahead of President Donald Trump. Biden's 51%-41% lead gives him both a double-digit advantage and more than half the total, obviating the issue of undecided voters, but Biden's support has slackened since last month's 53%-41% lead. The poll was the first to feature Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen, who scored 2%. Another question showed that an overwhelming number of voters, 72%, are now worried that election meddling will taint the result.

Biden is currently supported by 51% of registered voters and Trump by 41%. The remaining vote is scattered across third-party candidates, including Libertarian Jo Jorgensen (2%), the Green Party's Howie Hawkins (1%), and other candidates (1%), while 4% of voters are undecided. This is similar to the Democrat's late June lead of 52% to 39% with third-party candidates named and 53% to 41% without third-party candidates named. Biden's edge stood at 52% to 41% in early June, 50% to 41% in May, 48% to 44% in April, and 48% to 45% in March.

Slightly more voters say they are certain about their support for Biden (39%) than say the same about Trump (35%). This is similar to the "firm support" gap in late June, when it was 40% Biden to 34% Trump. Fully half (50%) of registered voters continue to say they are not at all likely to support the incumbent (identical 50% in late June), while 40% say the same about the challenger (39% in late June).

"Trump has stopped his slide in the poll, but Biden maintains a lead among all registered voters nationally," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.