In the FiveThirtyEight forecast, Joe Biden (D) wins 89% of simulated elections, commanding a 10% lead in national polls and a roughly 5%-8% lead in the swing states he needs to win in the electoral college. He is, at the finishing line, in a much better place than Hillary Clinton was four years ago. Though FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver has been grimly, constantly assertive of the real possibility of a Donald Trump (R) victory, he says nonetheless that…
Biden isn't a normal-sized polling error away from losing, he is a normal-sized polling error away from having a messy win that might not come with control of Congress.
The Real Clear Politics (RCP) average paints a less decisive picture, with the more recent polls it averages giving Biden slimmer leads—very slim, in fact, due to the weight given to outlier pollsters such as Trafalgar. The Economist's forecast, on the other hand, is all but conclusive, giving Biden a 97% chance of winning, with a 95% chance in Pennsylvania and and 80% chance in Florida.
Well, here we are again!
