Impacts of the Presidential debate far overestimated

The calamitous response of the news media after both candidates' catastrophic performances in the most recent Presidential debate was not indicative of any real shift in voter opinion.

I felt the fear after that last debate. For the first time, I had some cracks in my belief that US citizens would not end our experiment in democracy and turn the country into a fascist nightmare. Trump has never won a popular election. The Biden Administration has done a very good job for the American people, but a bad job of communicating it, and they are up against someone who seems to brainwash his adherents. The media blitz about how Biden has to, but won't, get out of the race has given me some anxiety. Turns out it is all bunk.

Even the New York Times, which is usually better about this, talked about a very tiny shift that was totally insignificant statistically like it was evidence that it was a shift toward Trump after the debate," Lazer says. "My hope is that reporters look at this and say, 'Maybe we need to be careful in overinterpreting noise as actual signal.'"

Professor Lazar said, "the net result is not a movement away from Biden."

The report shows 94% of those surveyed who had said before the debate they were Biden supporters said they would continue to support the President. But just 86% of those who indicated support for Trump before the debate said they would continue to do so.

"If anything, it seems that Biden is holding on to his people somewhat better than Trump," Lazar added.


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