You can now go order your four free COVID test kits from the USPS. I wish they were available year-round, and I wish many more were available per household, and I wish free masks were also available year-round, but I guess at this point I'll take what I can get. I'm definitely going to go order the four free test kits right now!
It's great timing, too. Dr. Michael Hoerger, who is a faculty member at Tulane University's School of Medicine and director of the top public U.S. COVID forecasting dashboard, recently posted the latest Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative Forecasting Model (Sept 23, 2024), which includes the following highlights:
- The U.S. continues to see an estimated 1.1 million daily COVID infections with 2.2% of the population actively infectious as we descend from the peak of a 9th Covid wave. Transmission will remain very high the rest of 2024.
- Looking at the year-over-year graph, note that we're in uncharted territory for this point in the fall. Expect a very high "lull" in early November before the winter surge sets in. As we have noted previously, our current estimates are likely slight underestimates given elevated school-based transmission and the CDC data standardization process.
- 1.1 million daily COVID infections
- 1 in 45 actively infectious
- Bimodal peak (Aug 10 & 24) of 1.3 million daily infections
- 50-60% of transmission happens on the back end of waves
- Expect about 29 million infections in the U.S. over the next month if the model holds.
- In a classroom of 30-35 people, there's about a 50% chance at least one person is infectious if weak/no isolation policies.
- Transmission is higher than during 80% of the pandemic.
- High "lull" coming early November around 850k/day
- Winter surge to follow
To learn more about the Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative and Dr. Michael Hoerger's work, check out the PMC's website.
And here's the website for your free COVID tests. Stay safe!
