Famed statistician Nate Silver—founder of polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight—writes that his gut is telling him the next US president will be convicted felon Donald Trump. To be clear, Silver also writes, "But I don't think you should put any value whatsoever on anyone's gut — including mine." (Of course, that means Silver can say he was right—no matter which way it goes.)
Instead, he urges us to look at statistical models, which are based on data rather than subjective intuition. Right now though, "in an election where the seven battleground states are all polling within a percentage point or two, 50-50 is the only responsible forecast," he says.
From the New York Times:
Polls are increasingly like mini-models, with pollsters facing many decision points about how to translate nonrepresentative raw data into an accurate representation of the electorate. If pollsters are terrified of missing low on Mr. Trump again, they may consciously or unconsciously make assumptions that favor him.
For instance, the new techniques that pollsters are applying could be overkill. One problem with using one of those — weighting on recalled vote, or trying to account for how voters report their pick in the last election — is that people often misremember or misstate whom they voted for and are more likely to say they voted for the winner (in 2020, Mr. Biden).
That could plausibly bias the polls against Ms. Harris because people who say they voted for Mr. Biden but actually voted for Mr. Trump will get flagged as new Trump voters when they aren't[…]Last, there is Democrats' persistently strong performance over the past two years — since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade — in special elections, ballot referendums and the 2022 midterms. Democrats shouldn't hang their hopes on this one: High-quality surveys like the New York Times/Siena College polls can replicate these results by showing Democrats polling strongly among the most motivated voters who show up in these low-turnout elections — but Mr. Trump making up for it by winning most of the marginal voters. So Democrats may be rooting for lower turnout. If those marginal voters don't show up, Ms. Harris could overperform; if they do, Mr. Trump could.
Previously:
• Nate Silver admits he got played by the GOP but blames the Democrats for not using poor polling practices
• Nate Silver's The Signal and The Noise
