Despite growing concerns about avian influenza, Bird Flu Risk, a new data-driven risk assessment suggests the chances of bird flu becoming as devastating as COVID-19 are remarkably low – just 5 out of 100, according to a tracking dashboard launched by forecaster Nathan Young.
The tracker uses data from multiple prediction markets to cut through the noise of alarming headlines. The dashboard synthesizes predictions from established forecasting platforms Metaculus and Kalshi, along with CDC advisory tracking, to create a comprehensive risk index.
"Even if all our warning indicators turn positive, we might only see something comparable to a typical winter flu season," Young notes on the site. His methodology weighs multiple scenarios including the possibility of 10,000 U.S. cases and potential CDC travel advisories.
The dashboard's creation reflects a growing trend toward quantitative risk assessment in public health monitoring. Rather than relying on sensational headlines or isolated incidents, Young's approach draws from prediction markets where forecasters put real money behind their estimates. Metaculus, one of the data sources, has built a strong track record for accurate forecasting through its community of data-focused predictors.
The 5% risk assessment offers a stark contrast to more alarmist views circulating in media coverage. "I really do not think a straight or weighted average is the right answer," Young says.
The dashboard, updated as of January 8, 2025, provides regular updates and allows users to subscribe for alerts.
Previously:
• Website tracks avian flu throughout the Americas
• Bird flu in raw milk
• Two more cats die from bird flu after drinking tainted raw milk
• Cow gives man bird flu
• As avian flu spreads, backyard chicken groups share conspiracy theories
• Bird flu suspected in California child who drank raw milk
• Dr. Deborah Birx: 'Our agencies are making the same mistakes they made with COVID'
• Man dies of bird flu in Mexico
