As scientists have refined the projected path of asteroid 2024 YR4, the odds of it striking the Earth and potentially vaporizing a large city have been as high as 3.1%. NASA now puts the odds between 0.16 and 0.27%, on par with many near-earth asteroids that the Planetary Defense Coordination Office is tracking. The moon, however, may not be so lucky.
As the odds of the asteroid striking the Earth have neared zero, the odds of the moon being struck by 2024 YR4 have risen from 0.3% to 1.2%, and scientists are excited. While still unlikely, a lunar impact would be an unprecedented chance to study the asteroid and the moon.
Unlike an Earth impact, a hit on the Moon would not only be not a threat but could actually be an opportunity for science. A lunar impact could reveal details of the asteroid's composition and structure — as it's pulverized by the impact and spewed back out in a rain of debris — as well as the lunar subsurface, as viewed in ejected material. Understanding the dynamics of the impact could also help aid future asteroid redirection.
Whether or not the asteroid strikes the moon, all eyes will be on it as it nears Earth.
Previously: Scientists track massive asteroid with rare 1.3% chance of hitting Earth in 2032
