"In 2023, I found a way to get 100% off my long-distance train travel between London and Carlisle," writes an anonymous author on Bunce. "All because the trains were delayed."
This commuter gamed the UK rail system by deliberately booking trains likely to be delayed, securing 100% refunds through Avanti West Coast's delay compensation program. The policy offers escalating refunds: 25% for 15-minute delays, 50% for 30 minutes, and 100% for delays over an hour.
They developed what they called a "Train Delay Prediction Paradigm (TDPP)" — monitoring strike actions, engineering works, and weather conditions to identify trips with high probabilities of significant delays.
The traveler exploited this by deliberately choosing days when multiple disruption factors coincided, calculating that "if the baseline chance of delay is 10%, engineering works add 25%, strikes add 35%, and bad weather adds 20%, then when all these problems happen, there's a 90% chance your train will be delayed."
By combining these factors and targeting routes already prone to disruption, they consistently received full refunds on expensive long-distance journeys between London and Carlisle.
"I deserved nothing less," writes our hero, "UK rail prices are the highest in Europe, but roughly 40% of trains are late."
Previously:
• Video of depressing first class train service between Boston and Washington DC.
• Train to nowhere and dead-eyed stares: my visit to the Korean demilitarized zone
• Miniature train set vs cat
