A Cold War-era Soviet spacecraft will soon fall to Earth in an uncontrolled re-entry. Kosmos 482 was launched by the Soviet Union in 1972 but failed to escape the Earth's gravity, and the landing probe has remained in low Earth orbit for 53 years.
Millions of pieces of orbital debris, or space junk, circle the Earth, constantly threatening satellites and the International Space Station. When they lose altitude, they usually burn up harmlessly when they pass through the Earth's atmosphere. Kosmos 482, however, was designed to pass through Venus's atmosphere. If its heat shield remains intact after 53 years in orbit, it will survive re-entry and land in one piece.
The current prediction for the spacecraft's re-entry is 06:26 UTC on 10 May 2025 +/- 4.35 hours. European Space Agency's Space Debris Office has continuously updated the predictions, and this map shows the current track, although there is still enormous uncertainty in the data.
ESA also addressed the possibility of someone being injured by the falling craft:
The risk of any satellite reentry causing injury is extremely remote. The annual risk of an individual human being injured by space debris is under 1 in 100 billion. In comparison, a person is about 65 000 times more likely to be struck by lightning.
The Virtual Telescope Project will attempt to capture and broadcast the re-entry on YouTube.
Pieces of Kosmos 482 landed on farms in New Zealand in 1972. The Soviets denied ownership of the so-called "Ashburton Space Balls," and they were returned to the farmers who found them.
Previously:
• International Space Station evades space junk
• Space debris to go critical, reduce all satellites to junk?
• The answer to space junk is space lasers
