Seth Shostak, senior astronomer for the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence Institute (SETI), predicts that we'll detect an extraterrestrial transmission within twenty years. The bold forecast is based on two factors: an estimation of how many alien transmitters there might be in our galaxy, and Moore's Law, which says that computer processing power will double every eighteen months or so. From New Scientist:
"Within a generation, radio emissions from enough stars will be observed and analysed to find the first alien civilisation, Shostak estimates. But because they will probably be between 200 and 1000 light years away, sending a radio message back will take centuries."
