Model predicts 200,000 Covid deaths in US by October 1

More than 116,000 people have died so far from coronavirus in the United States, and according to a model from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington,  the country is on course for another 85,000 deaths by October 1. The primary cause for the increase in deaths, according to the study, is due to "rising mobility and premature relaxation of social distancing in some states are the main reasons."

From CBS News:

"What's underlying that is two factors: The steady rise in contact rates, steady rise in mobility, and the likely continued relaxation of mandates over the course of the summer. Combined with the increasingly clear signal that seasonality is important," [IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray] said.

According to the IHME, "Higher mobility means higher transmission and more infections at the beginning of the expected second wave" in the fall.

As COVID-19 cases continue to decline in New York, once the epicenter of the nation's outbreak, new hotspots are emerging in states across the South and West. Some health experts say we could be seeing the impact of reopening too early.

Image: CBS News