A newly discovered 100-meter-wide asteroid has triggered Earth's planetary defense systems for the first time, with a 1.3% chance of colliding with our planet in December 2032.
Designated as asteroid 2024 YR4, the space rock was first spotted by a Chilean telescope in late December and quickly rose to the top of NASA and European Space Agency impact risk lists. It's now rated as a level three on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale — the second-highest rating ever given to a near-Earth object, as reported by The Guardian. (The 340-meter asteroid Apophis was categorized at level four in 2004, but ow scientists say there's no chance it will collide with Earth in the next century).
While the odds heavily favor the asteroid missing Earth, its size demands attention. "Most likely this one will pass by harmlessly," says Colin Snodgrass, professor of planetary astronomy at the University of Edinburgh. "It just deserves a little more attention with telescopes until we can confirm that." Though not civilization-threatening like the dinosaur-killing asteroid, an impact could still cause catastrophic local damage.
The detection has activated two UN-endorsed response groups: the International Asteroid Warning Network is conducting additional observations, while the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group stands ready to propose intervention strategies if needed. One option could be deflecting the asteroid using techniques tested in NASA's recent DART mission.
"If these observations don't rule out an impact, the next steps will be more detailed characterisation measurements using telescopes, and discussion of what space agencies could do in terms of more detailed reconnaissance and eventually mitigation missions," Snodgrass explains. Astronomers will closely track the asteroid until it fades from view, with the next observation window coming in 2028.
Previously:
• Asteroid flying close to Earth turns out to be douchebag's car
• Building blocks of life found on asteroid
• NASA bringing asteroid hunters to Sundance