Deaths from drug overdoses fell by a quarter between summer 2023 and January 2025, according to the National Center for Health Statistics. The numbers have returned to the level they were at at the outset of the Covid pandemic in 2020.
Provisional drug overdose death counts are based on death records received and processed by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) as of a specified cutoff date. The cutoff date is generally the first Sunday of each month. National provisional estimates include deaths occurring within the 50 states and the District of Columbia. NCHS receives the death records from state vital registration offices through the Vital Statistics Cooperative Program.
Brian Mann collects 8 theories why fentanyl deaths are plummeting.
1. Naloxone, also known as Narcan, may be the game-changer. The Biden administration raced to make this medication, a nasal spray that quickly reverses opioid and fentanyl overdoses, far more widely available. People can buy it now over the counter without a prescription. It's distributed for free in many high-risk communities, and people using drugs often carry it. It's unclear how many lives naloxone is saving each year, but many front-line public health workers tell me the impact is huge. Learn more here.
Other factors include more dilute street drugs, improved health services, a switch from injecting to smoking the drug, and young people avoiding drugs like their lives depended on it.
It's important to emphasize all of these theories are just that — theories. Most researchers, doctors and front-line care providers say they need more data and more time to understand a shift this large.
"Hypotheses," whispered Stannis.
