Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis are locked in a fierce competition, not for the top spot, but as the next best to Donald Trump. Sarah Longwell, a political strategist who recently conducted an Iowa focus group ahead of the January 15 Iowa Primary for the GOP Presidential candidate, said that the only conceivable way for either Haley or DeSantis to win would be under extreme circumstances involving Trump's death or if he murders someone.
In an interview on CNN, Longwell explained the dynamics of the race and the candidates' precarious positions. "Neither of them is going to get the momentum they need to become the winner," she said. "However, they are striving to at least secure second place." She highlighted the critical state of Ron DeSantis's campaign, noting that a third-place finish in Iowa could plunge his political career into a "deep freeze coma."
For Nikki Haley, Longwell suggested that a second-place finish might offer a sliver of hope. "It opens up what is the narrowest of paths to New Hampshire with some momentum," she stated, referring to the state's potential compatibility with a non-Trump candidate. Despite this, she was skeptical about Haley's chances, especially considering South Carolina's strong affinity for Trump, despite Haley's connection as its former governor.
Longwell's insights extended beyond the candidates' strategies to the staunch loyalty of Trump's supporters. She recounted an interaction during the focus group, where Iowa Primary voters expressed unwavering support for Trump, suggesting that only something as drastic as his death or committing murder would deter their vote. "Everyone in the group was more or less for Donald Trump, and they all certainly believed that he would be the nominee coming out of Iowa," Longwell said.
The only thing that would keep Iowa Republicans from voting for Donald Trump would be if he "did something extreme like either died or murdered somebody." according to the results of a focus group conducted by @SarahLongwell25 pic.twitter.com/SznGl7kevc
— Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) January 5, 2024