Asteroid 2024 YR4, whirling serenely around the sun, will certainly not hit Earth in 2032 as once feared. But they've run the numbers for the moon, too, and 2024 YR4 looks like it might be trouble after all.
With the additional data, experts from NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies at the agency's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California further refined the asteroid's orbit. The Webb data improved our knowledge of where the asteroid will be on Dec. 22, 2032, by nearly 20%. As a result, the asteroid's probability of impacting the Moon has slightly increased from 3.8% to 4.3%. In the small chance that the asteroid were to impact, it would not alter the Moon's orbit.
A new study examines the "mitigation" options: Space Mission Options for Reconnaissance and Mitigation of Asteroid 2024 YR4, posted at Arxiv. The most important thing to do, the authors suggest, is get a probe to it ASAP so we know what we're dealing with.
In this work, we present options for space missions to 2024 YR4 that could be utilized if lunar impact is confirmed. We cover flyby & rendezvous reconnaissance, deflection, and robust disruption of the asteroid. We examine both rapid-response and delayed launch options through 2032. We evaluate chemical and solar electric propulsion, various launch vehicles, optimized deep space maneuvers, and gravity assists. Re-tasking extant spacecraft and using built spacecraft not yet launched are also considered. The best reconnaissance mission options launch in late 2028, leaving only approximately three years for development at the time of this writing in August 2025.
Ellyn Lapointe summarizes the options; let's destroy it.
The first is a robust kinetic disruption mission. This would be similar to NASA's DART mission, but instead of nudging the asteroid off course, the spacecraft would aim to break it apart. Unlike the DART-style impact, kinetic disruption has never been tested before. However, NASA would have a reasonable amount of time to develop this mission, as the next available launch window is between April 2030 and April 2032, according to the researchers.
Alternatively, NASA could just nuke it.
I'm pretty sure the current President would be OK with that idea. A subtler problem, perhaps, is making sure that NASA still functionally exists when the time comes.
Previously:
• Asteroid flying close to Earth turns out to be douchebag's car
• Small asteroid creates spectacular light show over Russia just hours after discovery
• First asteroid found inside orbit of Venus: Caltech
• NASA reports a 'potentially hazardous' asteroid will come close to Earth on February 15, 2020
